2002 Election result: PNM - 20 seats - 308,807 votes (50.72%); UNC - 16 seats - 283,656 votes (41.66 %). Electorate: 875,259. Votes cast: 608,830 (69.56%).
The UNC Alliance is facing two foes in 2007 – the People’s National Movement (PNM) and the offshoot of the United National Congress (UNC), the Congress of the People (COP) led by former UNC political leader Winston Dookeran.
The pending showdown is very different from the 2007 vote when the PNM won 20 of the 36 seats in the Parliament.
In that election, the PNM received 50.72 per cent of the popular vote with 308,807 people staining their fingers for the governing party. The opposition UNC won 283,656 votes, representing 41.66 per cent of the popular vote.
That was mainly a two-horse race, a straight contest between the two parties, with the only other significant contender being the NAR in Tobago, which was still a two-candidate affair, since the UNC didn’t contest to two seats in the island.
Opposition supporters have been clamouring for unity ever since the rumblings began in the UNC following the internal executive elections, primarily because when they play politics by the numbers, they see Patrick manning and the PNM is in a relatively comfortable situation.
Manning is hoping that a month from now the splintered opposition would give him not just a victory but a special majority to allow him to change the constitution and establish an Executive Presidency.
Energized COP supporters and several columnists are saying that Dookeran’s ‘new politics’ has captured the imagination of the so-called invisible voters and that disenchanted PNM and UNC supporters are flocking to the party. If you believe what the party is saying it looks like more than 60,000 new members have come on board since the anniversary rally in Woodford Square.
Pontificating about politics is easy; understanding the ground battle is much more complex. So before everybody gets all emotional and start celebrating, there’s still time for some sobering reflection on what’s really happening and where the focus should be if there is any chance of unseating Manning.
First, Manning controls the apparatus of state and commands a huge political war chest. Incumbency has given him all the obvious advantages and many handicaps as well. But Manning and his political communication/propaganda team are good at controlling the agenda and diverting attention from the government’s weaknesses.
On the other hand the opposition has been working hard at shooting one another and losing sight of the real target, which causes two dangerous results: voter confusion and apathy. And that’s where politics by the numbers is something to watch and act on.
Let us assume that a fairy godmother appeared on the scene and made the opposition decide that whatever formula they use, there will only be 41 candidates against the PNM’s 41.
Suddenly the numbers start looking good and Manning might be looking at winning no more than the 20 seats he had in the last Parliament. Here’s why.
In 2000, the UNC won 54.89 per cent of the popular vote in a two-way race with the PNM, which just over 46 per cent. In San Fernando West Sadiq Baksh defeated the PNM candidate by 943 votes. In Tunapuna, Mervyn Assam won by 336 votes and in Ortoire/Mayaro Winston ‘Gypsy’ Peters by more than 1600 votes. Those three seats and the Tobago East, which NAR won, went back to the PNM in 2002 to change the power balance to 20-16.
But what is significant in the 2002 figures is that the UNC held its support in the south losing an average of 200 votes per constituency and in Tunapuna it actually increased its support.
All this in spite of a vicious sustained anti-UNC campaign by the PNM, which began as far back as the 2000 campaign and got worse in 2001 with Ramesh L. Maharaj and his ‘holier than thou’ Team Unity, which did enough damage to cause Prime Minister Basdeo Panday to lose the government to Patrick Manning through a presidential edict following the 18-18 tie.
So here’s the bottom line. With all the negative imagery against the UNC, it still commanded the support of 283,656 voters in the last election. That’s a net gain over 1995 – when it won 17 seats and formed the government in a coalition with the NAR – of 43,165 votes. In fact the biggest loss of support was in 2001 following the fallout with the Ramesh L. Maharaj 'gang of three', who were ready to do a deal with Patrick Manning and usurp the government.
Support fell from 307,791 in 2000 to 278,871 a year later, still 19,421 votes more than the PNM, which formed the government.
By 2002 the support grew 283,656. So the UNC never lost its electoral strength in spite of all the negative propaganda, including the legal persecution of its leader and the demonization of Basdeo Panday from inside and outside his own party.
So where are we in 2007?
The COP has taken away some of the UNC support. It would be entirely foolish to believe that it’s drawing its support only from the 30 per cent of people who never vote. And there’s little evidence to suggest that it has made inroads into PNM territory. And it would be equally foolish to believe that the 283,656 people who voted for the UNC have all turned against the party.
Even a phenomenal shift of 50 per cent would still leave it with nearly 150,000 votes.
(And just as an aside Karl Hudson Phillips and his Organization for National Reconstruction (ONR) in 1981 didn’t win a single seat with 90,000 votes.)
In fact it seems that the COP’s main target is the UNC Alliance and vice versa. And that’s why Manning is happy with diverting attention from the real national issues that everyone should be debating.
Instead he has shifted the agenda to front-page headlines about disenchanted supporters threatening to move their vote to the COP. The hopes that COP will fall for the basket and Manning’s plan seems to be working.
Manning is aware of the numbers and he loves the three-way contest, especially since the COP and the UNC Alliance are courting the same voters.
Take San Fernando West for example. The PNM candidate who beat Sadiq Baksh has been dropped for a popular panman. The COP is running their ‘iron lady’ Marlene Coudray and the UNC Alliance is yet to say who will be on the ballot for them.
In the Baksh-Seukeran contest, the PNM won by 249 votes. Sadiq Baksh polled 8842, Seukeran got 9091. The voter turnout was 77.9 per cent in that constituency, nearly 10 per cent higher than the national average. That means the ‘invisible vote’ was just over 20 per cent.
In 2007, the PNM could lose San Fernando West in a two-way race. But it won’t because the opposition is deluding itself into believing that it will steal votes from the PNM and win. Well consider this.
If there is a 20 per cent defection from the PNM that would mean a loss of just over 1800 votes, leaving it with 7200 votes. That gives the opposition 10,660, a clear victory over the PNM.
But wait. It’s not that simple because there are two opposition horses in that race, meaning the only way the PNM can lose is if one of the opposition parties polls fewer than 3,000 votes. What do you think?
All this is assuming that there will be a 20 per cent shift away from the PNM, which is highly likely. But even with a minor shift, a two-way race is almost certain to give the opposition the seat if we extrapolate from the result of 2007.
And play the same numbers game using 2002 statistics in places like Barataria/San Juan where Fuad Khan won by 905 votes, Tunapuna where Eddie Hart (now discarded by the PNM) won by just under 700 votes, St Joseph (1228 votes give Gerry Yetming the seat), Ortoire-Mayaro where Frankie Khan beat Gypsy by just over 300 votes. And there are five new untested constituencies.
Those results are from a two-way contest: PNM vs the UNC. In a three-way race, you don’t need a crystal ball to predict the result.
If the opposition parties do the math and focus on the real goal in the next few weeks they could defeat the PNM. If they stay on the present course, Manning will be the happiest man in town and all the ol’ talk about him being emperor will come to pass.
On the eve of ‘Super Weekend’ when the three political parties are massing to flex their muscles, my humble opinion is based on the lyrics of a song by Kenny Rogers.
Politics is a gamble and leaders would do well to consider this advice:
“…if you’re gonna play the game, boy, ya gotta learn to play it right.
You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when you’re sitting at the table.
There’ll be time enough for counting when the dealing’s done.”
Jai Parasram - Toronto, Oct. 05, 2007
No comments:
Post a Comment