Basdeo Panday addresses thousands of supporters Sunday at Mid Centre Mall, Changuanas.
Some time ago – on May 28 to be precise – I wrote a column entitled Is Basdeo Panday irrelevant. Like Canadian Salmon, I was swimming against the tide because at that time Panday had become the national political whipping boy.
Read the column: Is Basdeo Panday irrelevant
But the former Prime Minister has demonstrated once again that he is a political master and in spite of those who had all but written his epitaph – and not in flattering tones – he has fired up his United National Congress (UNC) and is battle-ready to go into the election to win.
Two of Trinidad and Tobago's best-known academics and political commentators agree that the rejuvenated UNC and its partners who will face the electorate as the UNC Alliance is a force to reckon with.
Selwyn Ryan and John La Guerre both say anyone who was under the impression that the UNC-A was a dead force should think again after Sunday's mass rally at the Mid Centre Car Park in Chaguanas.
Ryan was one of those who had little hope for the opposition group mounting a credible challenge to the People's National Movement (PNM) of Patrick Manning. He says Sunday's rally could very well be the surprise of the election race. He told local media he certainly sees a three-way race.
Until Sunday the feeling among many analysts and commentators was that it was a two-way affair between the Congress of the People (COP) and the PNM. Now many of them are wondering whether it is the COP that is the wounded and terminally ill member of the opposition forces.
COP had a feeble turnout at its public rally in Skinner Park on Sunday to announce its candidates, who include well-known national figures like Selby Wilson, Gillian Lucky, Ganga Singh, Prakash Ramadhar, Anand Ramlogan and the leader himself, Winston Dookeran.
By comparison, the UNC-A rally attracted thousands, representing not just the traditional Indian heartland but also a cross section of the people who make up Trinidad and Tobago's rainbow nation.
It looked like 2000 again when the UNC in government launched its campaign at that same location for re-election and went on to win 19 of the 36 seats in the House of Representatives.
In spite of Panday's legal battles, turmoil inside the party that led to the splintering and the birth of the COP, his own differences with Jack Warner, Panday was able to cobble an alliance and bring competing political interests together.
That is the kind of achievement one expects of Panday and Jack Warner. Throughout the storms and dark days, both Panday and Warner held strong to their beliefs and their vision. On Sunday they told the nation that were right: the nation is worth fighting for.
And the message to the electorate – especially anyone who had looked across the street to the new kids on the block – it's time to come home.
Ryan told the Trinidad Express, "The UNC's display of force and energy must have come as a shock and surprise to many people who assumed that it was dead. It is clearly not dead. Panday is clearly not dead."
And La Guerre agreed, saying, "I think a lot of people were surprised."
He credited Warner for the success of the event, adding that it has justified his selection by the leadership council as the chairman of the UNC Alliance.
The big question now is where does the UNC-A go from here.
One of its members has quit, suggesting that Panday is power-hungry. Really?
Who hasn't heard that before? And how many have come back to embrace Panday? Ask his former Attorney General.
But in announcing his resignation Stephen Cadiz, leader of the YesTT group, pledged to still support the alliance and continue working in Diego Martin East, although he no longer wants to run as a candidate.
The reality of first-past-the post politics is that it still favours the PNM in spite of Patrick Manning's troubles within his own party and his misdeeds in governance over the past six years.
The PNM is wounded and its decision to discard party stalwart Kenneth Valley is adding salt to the wound.
Read related story: Valley says voters must stop Manning
While Valley says he will continue to work with the party, he is warning the nation to stop a budding dictatorship. In fact he has gone so far as to urge people to put nation before party when they vote. A similar call has come from Michael Williams, the former President of the Senate in the NAR administration.
There is no contradiction in what Valley is saying. What he is telling the nation is Manning is a dangerous leader and should be stopped, but the PNM is worth salvaging.
He, like many disenchanted PNM supporters, is hoping that Manning will lose, giving them a chance to rebuild the party of Eric Williams.
Valley knew that confronting Manning publicly is political suicide but he's likely banking on breaking Manning in the election and getting a new lease on life.
That raises the more fundamental question of whether a splintered opposition can hurt Manning at all.
All things being equal, Manning could very well lose the election if he were facing 41 opposition candidates in 41 constituencies. The math of politics is easy to follow.
Take the Couva South seat, which is likely to go to Ramesh L. Maharaj, replacing Kelvin Ramnath, who is recuperating from cardiac surgery in Canada.
The PNM polled 6099 votes there in 2002, almost double what it received in the 2001 election when it got 3463.
Ramnath won in 2002 with a very comfortable margin with 12,584 but the dynamics are different in 2007 in this traditionally safe seat.
PNM inroads aside, the COP candidate, Devant Maharaj, is going to use his influence as the folk hero who took on the Prime Minister and won, with the full backing of the Maha Sabha and the organization's Jagriti Radio station, which it fought for and won in a major discrimination lawsuit.
The COP is hoping it could pull in the Hindu support.
So it's Maharaj vs Maharaj and the PNM could sail between them with a minority vote and take the seat.
And the scenario could be repeated over and over in all the marginal seats.
The real threat to Manning will come from Kamla Persad-Bissessar's clarion call for an oppoisiton accomodation and Ramesh L. Maharaj's pledge to campaign on the premise that a vote for the COP is a vote for the PNM.
And don't underestimate the skills of Jack Warner to broker a deal, especially working with Basdeo Panday.
So don't take anything for granted. November 5 is a long way off.
Anything is possible, especially since Basdeo Panday is alive and well. And the lion is still king in his political jungle.
Jai Parasram - Toronto, 9 Oct. 2007
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