Three parties have big rallies - PNM at Woodford Square, POS and COP at Skinner Park, San Fernando on Saturday. The UNC Alliance is at Mid Center Mall, Chaguanas Sunday.
The two opposition parties are poised to flex their muscles, each trying to outdo the other in a show of numbers - and class. And Patrick Manning is going to Woodford Square Saturday to rally the troops and tell them that victory is at hand.
It’s almost a North-South battle with The Congress of the People (COP) in Skinner Park the same day to present its candidates. For COP, it will be it’s premiere event to set the tone for its campaign leading to November 5.
The next day is the coming out party for the UNC Alliance. Basdeo Panday served notice a long time ago that if Sunday’s rally can’t attract at least 15,000 people he would consider it failure. His people have been pounding the streets and have promised 40,000 will flood the car park at Mid Center Mall.
It’s not clear if supporters will see a full slate of candidates, but what is more critical for the alliance is whether it will present a leader for the election. That has become the most contentious issue inside the political group, one that has polarized certain key people’s positions.
Kamla Persad Bissessar, one of the three UNC Deputy Political Leaders, is making it clear that the only leader she recognizes is Basdeo Panday. Kamla is no doubt sounding the alarm that Jack Warner, who is touted as the likely leader of the UNC Alliance, is bad news, so she is casting her lot with the man who is the undisputed UNC Leader.
Kamla fully supports the 'Chief' as the only leader she knows.
For his part Panday has said there is no vacancy for leader of the UNC, which of course is not the question. Panday leads his party, which is the dominant member of the UNC Alliance.
That’s where the issue gets fuzzy.
Nobody is talking about the individual parties. The group has made a commitment to face the electorate as a single political bloc and people want to know who will lead that bloc.
That’s the question they want answered. And they want the answer now, not on November 6. Jack Warner’s name has come up more than once.
Jack is a powerhouse within the UNC and is the man who worked tirelessly for opposition unity. He has a strong national profile and contrary to what some detractors are saying, he enjoys popular support in the Indian heartland.
Jack to lead UNC Alliance?
He also has the right presence on the East-West corridor through his community connections and can challenge the PNM on their home turf. And if you don’t know that ‘you don’t know Jack”.
It is no surprise therefore that there is a strong lobby for him to lead.
Thousands are heading to Mid center Mall on Sunday to hear what the UNC Alliance has decided. They will wave the flag, hear the speeches and enjoy the party the Alliance is throwing for the big event. But the party shouldn’t count on their votes if it doesn’t address their most pressing concern.
In Woodford Square the day before Manning will have to demonstrate to the faithful that all is well, despite the very public display of frustration over the nomination process.
And people are going to scan the stage for certain notable PNM people, most notably, Ken valley, the beleaguered cabinet minister who now resides in Manning’s doghouse along with other party ‘millstones’, to borrow the term from Dr Williams.
Valley is in the doghouse, but Manning says all is well
And if Ken is there, they will want to know what is his role and where he fits in the PNM grand scheme of things. They will be watching too for the new blood, the fresh team Manning has put together to fight the ‘new politics’ of the COP.
Manning is going into the election full of confidence saying that he will win convincingly. But this is an election like no other and there is no certainty that if the PNM wins it will be the cakewalk Manning is promising.
The PNM’s own research shows weakness in a number of key areas and the open warfare with party stalwarts like Ken Valley is a sign that there are significant cracks within the hierarchy.
Some insiders are saying the party might only be able to win 20 seats, which means a formal coalition could end the Manning regime. There is no strong evidence to point to that.
But a comment from a PNM insider is telling. That person, who wants to remain anonymous for obvious reasons, has said the party may not shed too many tears over losing because it will be an opportunity to get rid of Manning once and for all.
I must confess that the theory is so far-fetched it can’t be something to seriously consider. But in a society such as ours, one comment becomes two and before you know it it’s a real bacchanal. So if one person is thinking it, many others are saying it.
And what of the new kids on the block?
The PNM is obviously nervous about the COP and for good reason. It is running a poll on its website asking people to comment on whether they believe Ganga Singh and Sadiq Baksh are manipulating Winston Dookeran. So far the answer is a resounding yes. You might say, "so what?". Well, remember its part of the party's research to develop an attack strategy.
Dookeran and the COP have a lot going for them.
Perhaps the major baggage is the former ONR/NAR image in their lineup. But those people may not be on the final slate that Dookeran will present to the people. One insider has confirmed that prominent San Fernando lawyer Anand Ramlogan is the candidate for Couva South.
Anand for Couva South? Big prize for Winston.
Ramlogan isn’t confirming anything and he told local media that he understands why people might think he is right for politics, adding, “It’s whether politics is right for me at this time.”
That is really the million-dollar question. Anand is young, bright and popular. He is a jackpot for the party that can encourage him to run. He is fearless in taking on the establishment and its bureaucracy and has won constitutional challenges against the Prime Minister.
He stands for fairness, justice and equality. He is also an advocate against discrimination and a strong voice for the little person. As a lawyer he is vocal campaigner for the independence of the judiciary and the rule of law. In short, Anand Ramlogan is the story-book hero that every party wants but only one can have.
And my sources insist that the time has come and he will run for the COP. For Anand, going into politics must be a difficult. He has a lucrative legal practice, is well respected and at the height of his career.
Entering politics to sit on an opposition chair is not his cup of tea. So if he is going into politics, he is convinced that he's going into government. And five years later he sees himself on the big chair in Whitehall, if not earlier. Dookeran is in his mid-sixties and is unlikely to serve another term if he wins this election. Few people fit the successor profile better than Anand.
If my inside information is correct and he is running for the COP then it is clear that he too, like so many others, has become disenchanted with the UNC.
Anand used to be a strong supporter of the party. For him to turn his back on them is a double blow: it sends a strong message about the weak state of the UNC, and adds strength to the COP, which is attracting much support from across the nation.
SO it’s a grand weekend for politics. You might even call it Super Weekend. And each rally has star attraction.
For the PNM, it’s a lookout for Valley; the COP watch is for Anand on where he sits on that stage. And in Chaguanas, on Sunday everyone will be asking, “Who’s the leader?”
Jai Parasram - Toronto, Oct. 2, 2007
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