Commentary: Don't put on your campaign jerseys just yet!

2010 Electoral map. RED represents the 12 PNM held constituencies

Frankie Khan announced over the weekend that he is putting the opposition People's National Movement (PNM) on an election footing and went so far as telling reporters that the party will launch its general election campaign on January 10, 2012.

I am not sure what general election Frankie is planning for because the only one I know about is the one that is constitutionally due in 2015. And the Prime Minister has made it quite clear to everyone that she is not calling any election ahead of time.

So what is the PNM really doing?

If you read between the lines of this PNM soap opera you would understand that what is really happening is that the party that Keith Rowley heads is trying to play catch up with its former leader and MP for San Fernando East, Patrick Manning.

All of a sudden Manning has regained his power of speech and has been holding weekly news conferences to do what Rowley should be doing. 

In other words, Manning is behaving as if he is still the leader of the PNM although he professes support for his "esteemed" leader, the same one whom he described as a "wajang" and a "raging bull" and more recently a "pot hound" chasing every passing car.

And the former prime minister, having licked his wounds from the sound cut arse he got at the hands of Kamla and the People's Partnership, is now calling for fresh elections.  

Last week his boldness was most pronounced when he suggested that if the PP government could not do the job they should get out of the way and let others (read Manning and company) do it.

Eighteen months ago more than 430,000 voters hired Kamla and her partners to run the country and they fired Manning and his PNM. Why does Manning think that anyone wants him back in power?

So here's the real story. 

Manning is only the frontline poster boy for the real PNM players who are the hand in the glove guiding this drama. They know that the "pot hound" cannot lead the party back into government. So they have been playing a wild card to see if Manning has any remaining political traction.

And that is why Frankie and company up at Balsier House are talking about a general election campaign. They know they cannot force an election the way Kamla pushed Manning to pull the plug years ahead of schedule.

Sure the PP government has made mistakes and some big missteps. But the country is not yet ready to give up on the government. And nobody, especially PNM members and supporters, want another election because they know they will lose again.

What the Rowley PNM is doing is trying to get some real support for Rowley. And they need to do it fast. That is the real issue. 

The so-called election campaign that the party is planning is really to play down Manning and his supporters and see if they could get the party to rally around Rowley. That is a tall order, given Rowley's lack lustre performance so far.

And the real PNM power brokers - the ones with the money and influence who are playing their hand with Manning for now - will watch and see what happens next. They know Rowley is not the one and they are making a big gamble trying for a Manning comeback.

They know in all honesty that they have to not only try to rebuild the party but they also have to find a leader. None in the present crop is suitable, which presents the real dilemma for the back room power brokers.

That presents a real opportunity for Kamla and her team to do a post mortem on where they are today and figure out the best plan for where they must be in the next two years. 

Prakash Ramadhar is seeking to build his own political stock and is sounding off about a variety of issues that provide reporters with good copy.

The truth is he too is under intense pressure from a faction in the Congress of the People (COP), which says it wants to stand on its own. But Prakash and the MPs from COP are not ready to walk away from government, no matter what they say.

So Kamla is right when she says the coalition is strong, even if for now it is so for political expediency. Which of the MPs on the government side really wants to sit in opposition?

Nobody is moving because the reality is that if COP wants to walk, the UNC can stand alone. Kamla will still have a majority.

So to all those who are wondering what is really going on, here's the best advice: leave the campaign jerseys alone. There's no election coming for a long time!

Jai Parasram - 12 December, 2011