Friday, November 5, 2010

Unemployment reached 6.7% in Q1 of 2010, expected to get worse: Central Bank

The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (CBTT) says nearly 25,000 people in the country lost their jobs between 2009 and 2010, pushing the unemployment rate to 6.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2010.

It's the highest in almost three years.

The data, which is contained in the Bank's Monetary Policy Report dated October 2010, was released Thursday at a press conference in Port of Spain.

The report forecasts that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will likely be flat or at best show growth of one per cent. And it projects inflation and an unemployment reaching between seven and eight per cent by the end of the year.

Commenting on the unemployment issues, the Bank said the construction sector suffered most with the highest number of job losses - 13,000 jobs between January and April this year. In the year ending at the first quarter of 2010 a total of 24,700 people lost their jobs.

Central Bank Governor Ewart Williams is not optimistic. "The current weakness in economic activity is being accompanied by a sharp increase in unemployment and the surge in headline inflation. These developments have occurred in the context of a policy mix that sought to provide fiscal stimulus and easy monetary conditions," he told reporters.

"In the second quarter...the estimate is a decline in real GDP of just under one per cent following an increase of 1.9 per cent earlier in the year. This decline reflects slower growth in the energy sector and a continued decline in the non-energy sector. This is the sixth consecutive quarter for which we can talk about a decline in non-energy GDP," Williams said.

He noted that inflation, which is driven by high food prices, continues to retard economic growth. Headline inflation was at 16.2 per cent in August and dropped to 13.2 per cent in September.

"What is an area of concern with the inflation figures is that the bulk of the rise in inflation has come from domestic sources, the increase in prices of domestic product" the Governor said noting that things could get much worse when the full effect of imports is felt.

He said if there is continued slow growth internationally the country can expect no improvement in the new year in business and consumer confidence.

"In the bank's view a clear strategy for returning the fiscal accounts to approximate balance in the next two to three years should be an urgent priority. 
 
"To do this there may need to be some combination of energy tax reform, review of current expenditures and a re-prioritisation of capital spending and measures to bring down inflation to six to seven per cent by the end of 2011," Williams said.

The economic picture is a snapshot of the policies of the previous administration, which changed with the general election on May 24. The new government's fiscal priorities were outlined in its budget, which was presented on September 8.

It contains measures to deal with some of the pressing economic issues that are aimed at rebuilding consumer and business confidence. Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar has also embarked on an aggressive policy of wooing foreign direct investment in Trinidad and Tobago.

In addition, the ministry of food production is focusing on expanding domestic production to reduce food inflation.

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Jai & Sero

Jai & Sero

Our family at home in Toronto 2008

Our family at home in Toronto 2008
Amit, Heather, Fuzz, Aj, Jiv, Shiva, Rampa, Sero, Jai