People's Partnership takes over Tobago, eyes victory in May 24 vote

The People's Partnership took its May 24 general election campaign to Tobago Friday evening hoping to wrest control of the two Tobago seats from the governing People's national Movement (PNM).

Two candidates from the Tobago Organisation of the People (TOP) - Vanella Allen and Delmon Baker - are running against the PNM. TOP is one of the members of the People's Partnership.

TOP has won the endorsement of former President Arthur N.R. Robinson and former Chief Secretary Hochoy Charles.

The current PNM leader of the Tobago House of Assembly has also expressed displeasure with his leader, Patrick Manning, echoing the sentiments of Dr Keith Rowley, the PNM candidate for Diego Martin West.

Rowley has said he is worried the PNM would lose the election and urging supporters to vote for the party but not the leader. Rowley and Robinson are well-respected sons of Tobago.

Several opinion polls are suggesting that TOP would win both seats. TOP leader Ashworth Jack told JYOTI he is confident of victory. The NAR led by Robinson last held both seats in 1995 when it formed a coalition with the United National Congress (UNC) to form a government led by Basdeo Panday.

That relationship turned sour and Panday tried to remove Robinson by nominating him as the governing party's candidate for election, which he won. But Robinson had his revenge when in 2001 he fired Panday and appointed Manning to head the government after both parties tied 18-18 in general election.

Panday was defeated as leader of the UNC in the party's internal election in January 2010 by Kamla Persad-Bissessar, who is now leading the alliance.

A victory for TOP on Monday would give the strength it needs to beat the PNM.

Various polls are suggesting a partnership victory with a clear majority. In the 2007 general election the UNC and a few allies won 15 of the 41 seats in the House of Representatives. But the Congress of the People (COP) which is now a part of the partnership got more than 140,000 votes.

Now with a single opposition candidate facing the PNM the chances of victory are greatly enhanced. Based on 2007 statistics the combined opposition votes can give the People's Partnership at least 20 seats, one short of the majority.

But there has been a major swing away from the PNM primarily because members of the party are angry that Prime Minister Manning's government collapsed in just after two years under the weight of corruption allegations and an open split in the party, with a Rowley faction against Manning.

That coupled with what the opposition is calling "Kamlamania" has put the opposition in a commanding position to unseat the PNM on Monday.

Polls are suggesting that the opposition would keep its 15 seats in its heartland and add all the so-called seven marginal seats that would give it the 22 seats, one more than the bare majority. But that doesn't take into account the two Tobago seats.

In addition polls are suggesting that the People's Partnership would win as many as three PNM seats on the East West corridor, one in Diego Martin and one in south Trinidad.

It that happens the Partnership would be going into government with 27 seats, giving it a special majority to allow it pass some legislation without opposition support. But it would be short of the majority needed to unilaterally change the constitution.