UNC could get clear majority in seat-sharing arrangement with COP

The Congress of the People (COP) and the United National Congress (UNC) are still working out final details of their accord that will commit both parties to a common platform. The plan also ensures that they will not compete against each other in any constituency.

This means they will allocate seats in such a way to maximize chances of a joint victory. The agreement will keep both parties out of Tobago, leaving the two seats there for the Tobago Organization of the People (TOP).

TOP Leader Ashworth Jack is convinced that in a two-way race with the People's National Movement (PNM) the party can win both seats. In 2007, the PNM won a clear majority in the two seats, but it won Tobago East by fewer than 1,000 votes.

In Trinidad the UNC held 15 seats in the 9th Parliament and based on the results of the 2007 election, it was second in eight others, which gives it 23 of the 39 constituencies. That would leave COP with 16 seats where it came second in the last election.

Such an arrangement could give the UNC a clear majority without the COP.

One consideration is to give up some of the safe UNC seats to COP candidates, including St Augustine, which has been one of the safest UNC seats.

Vasant Bharath defeated COP leader Winston Dookeran there in 2007 although Dookeran held the seat previously when he ran for the UNC in 2002. If Dookeran wants to run, that might be one constituency where the UNC might give up its advantage.

In Barataria/San Juan the UNC has already named Fuad Khan as its candidate and it has nominated Clifton De Coteau for Princes Town South/Tableland. Khan has won that seat for the UNC four times but the UNC lost it to the PNM is 2007 because of the vote splitting.

The Princes Town seat was created in 2007 and the De Coteau came close to winning.

The UNC is expected to keep St Joseph, Chaguanas East and Pointe-a-Pierre as well. Other seats likely to remain UNC are La Horqueta/Talparo, Lopinot/Bon air West and La Brea.

The UNC screening committee has some tough decisions to make in some constituencies that it held in 2007, especially Oropouche West and Princes Town North that were held by Mickela Panday and Subhas Panday respectively.

Both of them are seeking the nomination so the party might be tempted to hand those constituencies to COP to avoid having to make a controversial decision on who to pick.

There are also other safe UNC seats - Couva North, Couva South and Tabaquite - where no decisions have been made as yet.

The possible breakdown could look like this: