Column: Manning's gamble. Don't celebrate yet!

The consensus among opposition supporters is that Patrick Manning has just written his political epitaph and the man who plans on serving the Lord after politics might very well be on his way to starting his new career.

Even among many his own supporters in the People's National Movement (PNM) Manning is making bad gamble.

But is he?

Perhaps this a carefully planned strategy to shake off some of his baggage and win a fresh mandate as a leader of integrity.

In the past two and a half years since winning a strong majority Manning has had the benefit of great windfall revenues while presiding over an administration that has been accused of being the most corrupt in the history of independent Trinidad and Tobago.

His move to dissolve Parliament on the eve of an opposition no confidence motion earned him the label of coward, with the leader of the opposition calling it an admission of Manning's colossal failure.

"He is petrified of the information which would have come before the Parliament," Kamla Persad-Bissessar told reporters Thursday as she pledged to have an election campaign in which the opposition would expose:

• The UDeCOTT and Calder Hart issue
• the criminal probe into the Abu Bakr land deal
• the construction of a Church at Guanapo Heights
• the dangers posed by Trinidad and Tobago Revenue Authority Bill
• the unpopular property tax
• unchecked crime
• the breakdown in the provision of health, water, education
• the squandering of the nation’s resources

It sounds like the making of a winning campaign. But the opposition should be careful and not start celebrating a victory just yet.

Though Manning has created the perfect political storm that can sweep him from office he is counting on his political skills, the use of state propaganda and the loyalty of the PNM tribe to return him to office.

Today, with the legislature silenced, Manning is fully in charge, governing only with the executive branch which he heads. He has already put the state propaganda machine into full gear and over the next few weeks he will bombard the population with positive messages about the achievements of his government.

His failings will become virtues in the well orchestrated advertising blitz and Manning will present himself as a man of morality and spirituality whose character is beyond reproach. Those who have broken the rules, he will say, will pay the ultimate price.

"Don’t put God out of your thoughts by putting them back into office," Manning told his supporters last month when he put his party on an election alert.

He is also counting on an unprepared opposition, a lack of unity and the yet unsettled internal issues in the United National Congress (UNC) that have remained simmering since the internal election in January.

The opposition is confident that it can beat Manning and the PNM. It insists that the unity matter is going to be settled, despite the rumblings of discontent from the Congress of the People (COP).

But what about the Panday factor?

Persad Bissessar fought her campaign for election as leader of her party on the promise to shake the Panday UNC from its lethargic state and win. The membership voted overwhelmingly to break away from Panday.

In addition, COP sent a signal that with Panday out of the way, it was willing to do business with the UNC.

But Panday and some of his loyal MPs like Kelvin Ramnath and Ramesh L. Maharaj who have so far refused to accept the new leadership in the UNC are now saying that they are ready to seek re-election. Can they become the albatross around Kamla's neck that could deprive her of the victory of which she is so confident?

Some UNC supporters welcome the return of the party's founders saying if Kamla accepts them she would show magnanimity and independence, immediately providing healing and hope to consolidate the UNC base.

The flip side of that argument is that the return of the Pandayites would muddy the unity waters with the COP which had always been adamant that it would not seek unity or political accommodation with a Panday UNC.

It is no longer a "Panday UNC" and Panday would be only a candidate if he is nominated to run again, despite the rejection by his own constituency and the UNC membership at large.

But it would be naive for anyone to suggest that his presence would not bring back memories of the baggage that caused the UNC to remain in opposition since it was toppled in a presidential coup in 2001.

Added to that, the widespread national support for Kamla could wane if there is a perception that she is embracing Panday again.

In effect, what may very well happen is that if the UNC wins a majority Panday and his loyal MPs would be the real power brokers because they could threaten to walk away if they don't have their way, causing a collapse of the government.

Manning could exploit all of this as he tries to convince the electorate that despite the PNM's shortcomings it has the maturity to govern.

The road ahead for the opposition is bumpy, but victory is possible. What is needed is a united opposition and careful, well focused campaign with a slate of candidates that's acceptable not only to the UNC base but to the nation.

That's a tall order and time is short.

Jai Parasram - Toronto | April 9, 2010