Depending on how he views his world, Winston Dookeran might consider himself the biggest winner or loser in the UNC elections of January 24.Suddenly, the party that was born out of disaffection with the politics of Basdeo Panday has lost its raison d’etre.
For Dookeran, a man with an apparent distaste for the cut and thrust of politics, this could be cause for great relief- unless silent ambition has got the better of him.
Dookeran has repeatedly suggested that the only thing standing between the UNC and COP was Basdeo Panday. With Panday now out of the way, UNC defectors to the COP can be expected to return to their old party in droves to join a re-energised campaign in hopes of returning to government.
The floating ONR votes that had come to rest, first in the NAR and more recently in the COP, are probably already sizing up their prospects with a UNC led by Kamla Persad-Bissessar, although Patrick Manning must surely be thinking about building his own bridge to the COP camp.
Not everyone in the COP would want to surrender so easily.
The ONR cohort is likely to urge the COP leader to hold out to see whether Persad-Bissessar’s honeymoon halo will shine all the way to the next general election—which could be all of two years from now unless Mr Manning gets divine instructions to the contrary from above.
The opposition electorate’s love affair with Persad-Bissessar is currently far too intense for any rival to get even the time of the day. The better bet would be to wait for a cooling-off period and hope it comes within Panday’s six-month calculation for her collapse.
Those in the COP who are insisting on holding the line against the UNC will want to caution Dookeran against engaging in discussions with Persad-Bissessar and Jack Warner; but if he decides to do so, it is difficult to see who in the COP would be capable of commanding a significant enough number of its forces.
Inside the PNM, the calculation would be the same.
A resurgent UNC would rule out of a snap election (again one assumes no divine intervention). Suddenly, local government elections have become attractive, both as a warm-up opportunity for rallying constituencies at the base level and for testing the party’s strength within the context of the new political configuration.
In the evolving scenario, the greater likelihood is for general elections after October 2012, following a grand celebration of the 50th anniversary of Independence.
In the current political and economic environment, it would make sense for Mr Manning to try and get the recession behind him before taking on a re-energised UNC.
Equally important from the PNM’s point of view is the political value of time: Two years provide more than enough time for tripping up the UNC’s new political leader and deflating her momentum.
As for Panday, the logic of his six-month projection would suggest that he should step away and allow the situation to evolve. But strategic calm has never been his strength.
Instead, he is likely to end up strengthening Persad-Bissessar’s hand by sustained irrationality which, ultimately, would only serve to bring her greater sympathy and admiration from her adoring public.
More than anyone else, Panday should understand the magnetism of martyrdom - having built a political career on it.
Persistent pappyshow could also end up backfiring on Panday by serving to distract the public from a more clinical assessment of Persad-Bissessar’s performance as a candidate for national leadership.
From her perspective, a defiant Panday is the perfect foil for the new UNC leader who would be better off leaving him to the mercy of the party’s angered membership while she turns her attention to deepening her resume, building her platform for national office and expanding the party’s base to include the COP on acceptable terms.
Her options would include alliance, merger, accommodation, redundancy and contestation. With Persad-Bissessar’s stocks running as high as they currently are, redundancy would seem a reasonable option.
But in the fluid world of politics, there is no guarantee that conditions won’t return to give the COP a second wind.
It would be surprising if the UNC leader or Jack Warner would be content to leave their future to chance, in which case, the possibility of talks towards a merger of forces in the form, say, of a UNC(OP) (United National Congress of the People) could become attractive.
The real challenge would lie in the negotiations involved in getting from here…to there. But then that’s the advantage of having Jack Warner as a mergers and acquisitions specialist.
Column by Sunity Maharaj reprinted from: The Trinidad & Tobago Review
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