Column: Don't write off Panday yet; politics has its own morality

If you know Basdeo Panday you would not lightly brush off his prediction that under the leadership of Kamla Persad-Bissessar the UNC would die in six months.

This is not to suggest that the newly invigorated party with Persad-Bissessar as leader and Jack Warner as chairman would crumble; on the contrary, the mass membership drive beginning Monday will add to its strength and widen its base.

But Panday's mission is not that the party will die in a literal sense. He knows that it won't but his mission would be to regroup with those Members of Parliament who remain loyal to him and launch a new political movement.

And if you are saying, "so what?" on the basis of the 1300 or so votes he got as opposed to the runaway landslide of more than 13,000 for Persad-Bissessar, think carefully of the great danger that any such move holds for the United National Congress (UNC).

The first and immediate result of such a plan would be to take back the opposition from the UNC. Under the present arrangement Persad-Bissessar can appoint her Whip, as she has done, and all the business of the Parliament would continue to be under the control of the party.

Panday, for now, remains leader of the opposition, holding on to a post that gives him the privilege of meeting with the prime minister and the president to discuss matters of state. It also allows him in his capacity as leader of the opposition - not leader of the opposition party - to issue statements and generally to act as if he is charge of the UNC when it fact he is not.

But if Panday decides to register a new party tomorrow morning and get all his loyal MPs to pledge allegiance to the new party, the new party will automatically get legal status as the official opposition and then he would be legitimately both the leader of the opposition and leader of the opposition party.

It does not matter that he would have no support among the citizenry. The constitution does not ask that and there is no "crossing the floor" law that prevents the elected opposition MPs from advising the Speaker that they no longer sit as members of the UNC.

If such a development takes place, then the UNC will have a greater battle on its hands because it would have lost its voice and status in Parliament despite having the near unanimous support of the membership.

And even if it grows that membership significantly in the next few weeks none of that will matter. The new Panday party would have pulled the rug from under the feet of Persad-Bissessar and the UNC.

And interesting, it is Dr Roodal Moonilal who could make a difference.

The tally of who is supporting Persad-Bissessar today is still short of a majority. Moonilal still appears to be firmly in Panday's corner but he is also the lone Pandayite in the new national executive.

He cannot, therefore, continue to sit in the executive and join another party. However, he can tell Panday the greater national good is more important and join those who support the new UNC and move on with the business of rebuilding the party and winning an election.

Panday would still be able to move on with his agenda but the coup that he and his close allies are plotting to take over the opposition in Parliament would be stillborn and then he can hope, at best, just to use propaganda to try to kill the UNC and generate enough support to make sure the party cannot win a majority. That would keep Patrick Manning and the PNM in government.

Ramesh L. Maharaj did that in 2001 with his Team Unity.

While Panday boasted that he beat Ramesh in that election, it was a Maharaj victory. That's because Maharaj's point was never to win any seat but just to cause enough damage to the UNC to ensure that the fallen Panday would not return to government and Manning would be in government.

And he achieved that and successfully got Manning into Whitehall.

It was the same tactic he used in the internal election a week ago, except in this case the tables were turned and both he and Panday felt the wrath of the UNC membership.

But Panday has said he isn't dead yet. And don't underestimate what he might be thinking or what he could do.

If Persad-Bissessar and Warner become complacent and blink Panday will find the opening to pounce on them and have his revenge. This battle is far from over and the new UNC needs to be vigilant and skillful in holding on to the party both inside and outside the Parliament.

Jai Parasram - Jan 31, 2010