Basdeo Panday is ready for Wednesday's inquisition at which the United National Congress (UNC) is planning to expel deputy leader Jack Warner. But Warner has served notice that he will fight the party and it is expected that he will carry the legal ammunition when he faces the UNC disciplinary team.In a letter summoning Warner to Wednesday's meeting the party outlined more than 20 instances, which it says prove that Warner has acted in a manner that is inimical to the party's interests.
Most of the incidents in the UNC's detailed dossier are true and Warner will not dispute them. That will give the party its chance to hold them up as evidence that Warner is not fit to be a member of the UNC by virtue of breaking party rules on multiple occasions.
Read the story: UNC summons Warner to explain actions
Warner has explained in the media, in public meetings and interviews that all his actions are justified and legal because as a deputy leader of the UNC he is only trying to improve the party's organization and get it ready to face the governing People's National Movement (PNM) in a national election and win.
But when the political daggers come out on Wednesday that fundamental issue will be buried as would the fact that other UNC members, including the political leader and the two other deputy leaders, have also committed some of the same "crimes".
The party's focus is to sink Warner and move on with its business. It will try to do it by saying the Chaguanas West MP is in collusion with the People's National Movement (PNM), a charge that Warner has rejected as rubbish.
But the party will argue that the Chaguanas West MP betrayed the party on three occasions, voting twice with the PNM in Parliament while the UNC abstained and then ousting the mayor of Chaguanas in a well-planned operation that involved the support of two PNM councillors.
For now, it looks like the Chaguanas West MP has either just painted himself in a corner or worse, that he is standing in political quicksand.
Panday is famous for discarding those who oppose him. But in Warner he has come across an adversary who is not giving up or planning to roll over and die. It's a battle between two men, each with his own point of view of what's best for the party and there's no sign of a winner in the squabble.
Warner is adamant that unlike Winston Dookeran and Ramesh L. Maharaj he will not form any new political movement because he is at home in the UNC and that is where he plans to stay.
The tragedy of Wednesday's Rienzi showdown is that no one wins unless the UNC changes its approach and instead of going down the familiar road of fighting its own neither Panday nor Warner will win. It's even more tragic that in each side there is talent and a united and re-branded UNC can beat Manning and his PNM because it would offer a real alternative.
The point about all this is not whether Warner is right or wrong, whether his campaign for change has mass support or whether he can lead the party to Whitehall. Or whether Panday is right and whether the people are with him on this.
All that is irrelevant when you look at the full political canvas.
Warner is a self-made success story. He never needed politics for fame and fortune. In his role as Vice President of FIFA he has travelled the world and met the leaders of scores of countries, who have welcomed him with open arms. Only this week he was a guest of U.S. President Barack Obama.
He has more wealth than he can use in a lifetime. So he doesn't need political power and he has said on many occasions he needs no office. However, he feels a commitment to end Manning's reign and wants to do it by uniting his party. And many others want the same thing.
He is convinced that the UNC cannot win another election unless it reforms itself and embraces the changes that are vital to appeal to a wide national audience. In 2000 the party was heading in that direction but today it is being pushed back into sectoral politics.
Warner offered a bridge in 2007 when he stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Panday and brought the party out of its comatose state to win 15 seats, shocking the critics who had already written the UNC's epitaph.
But he knew then and he does today that times have changed and people are no longer content to live in the past. The shift of 100,000 UNC supporters to the Congress of the People (COP) was the clearest signal ever that it cannot be business as usual if the UNC ever hopes to get back to Whitehall.
That is the message Warner has been spreading and that is why he is saying he is not leaving the UNC.
Wednesday could mark a significant turning point in the politics of opposition. Panday could have his victory and lose the war as he has done in previous battles. Or he could consider the bigger picture and work with Warner to unite the party and the opposition to challenge Manning and the PNM.
Panday is showing every sign of following a well-known script. He is out to get Warner.
And when the shouting is over, the only winner will be Manning, who might capitalize on the divisions, call a snap election and get the constitutional majority that would make him a supreme ruler.
That is not to suggest that there is collusion between Panday and Manning. It's only to acknowledge that once again it appears that Panday and his colleagues prefer to remain politically shortsighted.
And once more the UNC would have disappointed the citizens who seek deliverance from the oppressive PNM regime.
Jai Parasram | Toronto, July 29. 2009
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