Failed state? TT could be heading in that direction

Read the Failed State index compiled by The Fund For Peace

If you look at the 2007 Failed States Index compiled by a group called the Fund For Peace you might be tempted to say there is nothing to worry about. But there is cause for concern.

The index classifies nations in one of four groups – Alert, Warning, Moderate and Sustainable – with Alert being the worst. Trinidad and Tobago falls in the Warning group and is rated at 116 out of 177.

The index measures social, economic and political indicators classified in 12 sections. These are:

1. Mounting Demographic Pressures
2. Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally Displaced Persons creating
   Complex Humanitarian Emergencies
3. Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Group Paranoia
4. Chronic and Sustained Human Flight
5. Uneven Economic Development along Group Lines
6. Sharp and/or Severe Economic Decline
7. Criminalization and/or Delegitimization of the State
8. Progressive Deterioration of Public Services
9. Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of Law and Widespread violation of Human Rights
10. Security Apparatus Operates as a "State Within a State"
11. Rise of Factionalized Elites
12. Intervention of Other States or External Political Actors

The definition of each is interesting and worthwhile reading. For example, under the political heading it lists:

• Massive and endemic corruption or profiteering by ruling elites
• Resistance of ruling elites to transparency, accountability and political representation
• Widespread loss of popular confidence in state institutions and processes
• Growth of crime syndicates linked to ruling elites

Does that describe what’s happening in Trinidad and Tobago Today? How about this: “Fragmentation of ruling elites and state institutions along group lines”?

Under Social Indicators, you’ll find these points:

• Specific groups singled out by state authorities, or by dominant groups, for persecution or repression
• Institutionalized political exclusion
• Public scapegoating of groups believed to have acquired wealth, status or power

And under the economic indicators group:

• Group-based inequality, or perceived inequality, in education, jobs, and economic status
• Group-based impoverishment as measured by poverty levels, infant mortality rates, education levels
• Rise of communal nationalism based on real or perceived group inequalities

It is clear that these indicators and definitions are present in some form in Trinidad and Tobago today. Whether they are real or perceived is debatable, depending on who you ask or which group responds.

For its part the government has said repeatedly that the country is in no such danger and these concerns, expressed mostly by the opposition, are without merit.

But ask the average apolitical citizen and you will find disagreement with the state’s view of things. And that is why it is important to consider the dangers we faced as we sit in that second group, titled: WARNING.

It is indeed a warning that we are heading into the ALERT group of 32 states, which includes Sudan, Somalia, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia, Uganda, Iraq, Afghanistan, Haiti, Burma to name a few.

The WARNING group of 97 states is headed by Colombia and includes the CARICOM nations of Antigua and Barbuda, Belize, The Bahamas, Grenada, Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago. It also includes India and China.

Here’s how Trinidad and Tobago scores on the index on a scale of one to 10, with one being the best and 10 the worst:

It gets a score of 5.2 in the areas of the "state or dominant groups singling out specific groups for persecution, institutionalized political exclusion and public scapegoating of groups believed to have acquired wealth status or power."

Its highest score is in the areas of "group-based inequality, or perceived inequality, in education, jobs, and economic status and rise of communal nationalism based on real or perceived group inequalities." It is rated at 8.1 out of 10, which suggests this is the most disturbing issue. Overall the country gets a score of 67.5. It gets a failing grade in 10 of 12 categories, including crime.

Norway, which is the most secure of the 177 nations, has a score of 17.1; Canada 25.1 and the United States 33.6.

On the “failed” end the highest score Sudan, 113.7; Iraq, 111.4; Somalia, 111.1 and Zimbabwe, 110.1

While Prime Minister Patrick Manning is right to say Trinidad and Tobago is not a failed state – and the statistics support his view – he and the other power brokers must indeed accept that there are alarm bells going off in critical areas.

And unless the government makes a genuine effort to fix what’s wrong, the nation would continue the downward trend and eventually take its place among the world’s FAILED STATES.