2 polls suggest St Joseph race still too close to call

Two new opinion polls suggest that the United National Congress (UNC) is facing stiff competition in the three-way race in the November 4 St Joseph byelection.

One survey done for the Guardian Media Limited and published in the Sunday Guardian interviewed 600 people in the 12 polling divisions in the constituency.

The result suggests that the Independent Liberal Party (ILP) has gained ground at the expense of the UNC while the PNM support has remained steady.

In an earlier Guardian poll the figures were:

1. PNM - 31.4 per cent
2. UNC - 31.2 per cent
3. ILP  -  24.6 per cent

At that time the UNC had not declared its candidate. The Guardian conducted the newer poll after Ian Alleyne became the candidate and the UNC dropped to third place with the ILP gaining support that the UNC lost.

Here are the new figures:

1. PNM - 31.5 per cent (plus 0.1 per cent)
2. ILP  -  30.8 per cent (plus 6.2 per cent)
3. UNC -  27.0 per cent (minus 4.2 per cent)

That puts all three parties within reach of the target since the poll has a 4 per cent margin of error. The analysis shows the biggest gain by the ILP, which suggests that for now it has the momentum to win the election. The conclusion by the Guardian is that it is still too close to call.

The second poll - by NACTA, the North American Caribbean Teachers Association, suggests that a split vote would put PNM candidate Terrence Deyalsingh in front.

NACTA said, "The UNC’s Ian Alleyne and ILP’s Om Lalla are trailing slightly behind with the others drawing insignificant support and projected to lose their deposits. The findings show that if the votes were not split, Deyalsingh would have virtually no chance of wresting the seat that was held by the UNC."

The poll also suggests that while UNC supporters like Lalla they are leaning to the UNC and saying they would vote for their party rather than the candidate. 

Here's how NACTA's figures break down:

1. PNM - 33 per cent
2. UNC - 30 per cent
3. ILP  - 24 per cent

NACTA's figures suggest a dead heat between the PNM and UNC with the ILP last but still very close based on the four per cent margin of error.

The UNC won the St Joseph seat in the 2010 general election and in all the general elections since 2000, except 2007 when it lost as a result of a three-way race. In that election the combined opposition polled more votes than the PNM.

On November 4, the PP votes is split between the UNC and the ILP while the PNM's support remains constant.

An Express newspaper poll of a smaller sample gives the PNM a huge lead in the election. With a margin of error of nearly six per cent, the survey of 280 voters shows the PNM at 39 per cent, the UNC at 26 per cent and the ILP at 19 per cent