NACTA poll gives partnership the edge in LGE, but undecideds high

Read the full details of the poll in Newsday 

An opinion poll published Sunday in the Newsday newspaper suggests that the United National Congress (UNC) is ahead nationally for the October 21 Local Government Election (LGE) with the Opposition People's National Movement (PNM) close on its heels. 

It also says the new Independent Liberal Party has strong national support and that the Congress of the People (COP) won't win any seat.

The poll was conducted by the North American Caribbean Teachers’ Association (NACTA) over the last few weeks. It has based its opnion on interviews with 950 respondents reflecting the country's ethnic diversity. The poll has a three per cent margin of error nationally and four percent error for the regions. 

NACTA says its poll found that the PNM has retained its base support while the People's Partnership has lost some supporters to the new Independent Liberal Party (ILP) led by Jack Warner.

The poll suggests that voters are divided about loyalties. This is how the numbers look when respondents were asked which party is most likely to win the LGE:

1. UNC - 27 per cent 
2. PNM - 25 per cent
3. ILP  - 20 per cent
4. COP - zero per cent

There is a large undecided number of 28 per cent, NACTA said. 

In terms of popular support nationally, NACTA says the UNC is ahead of the PNM by six points. Here's how the numbers break down:

1. UNC - 35 per cent
2. PNM - 29 per cent
3. ILP  - 18 per cent
4. COP - 03 per cent
5. UNDECIDED: 15 per cent 

NACTA suggests that the PNM will win Tunapuna, Sange Grande and San Fernando. But it's not that cut and dried since the poll was done before candidates were announced and in the absence of the campaigns by the respective parties.

While NACTA gives San Fernando to the PNM its figures show the PNM and UNC in almost a deadheat. However, the UNC is not contesting seats in San Fernando but will throw its support with COP in a joint PP campaign.

In this context while there is a party-by-party breakdown that shows the PNM leading by 6 per cent, the combined UNC/COP figure puts the partnership at 34 per cent, one more than than the PNM. The ILP's 17 per cent and the 16 per cent undecided could see the result going any way on election day.

The same is happening in Tunapuna when you look at NACTA's numbers. In that coporation the PNM leads with 30 but the COP/UNC figure is 33 per cent. The ILP is at 18 per cent and the undecided is high at 19 per cent.

In Sange Grande, the undecided is even higher at 25 per cent with the UNC/COP alliance holding 29 per cent as opposed to the PNM's 27 per cent and the ILP's 19 per cent.

Two parties are launching their campaigns and presenting candidates Sunday - the PNM at Woodford Square in Port of Spain and the ILP in Chaguanas. The PP will launch its joint campaign on Mondat at Harris Promenade, San Fernando.

The polling figures could change substntially over the next few days and it is near impossible today to forecast the result.