Canadians elect new government Monday. Another minority or NDP-Liberal coalition?

Canada's political leader (L-R): PM Stephen Harper; Jack Layton (NDP); Michael Ignatieff (LIberals); Gilles Duceppe (BQ) and Green Party leader Elizabeth May

Canadians are voting Monday for the third time in five years in an election that was neither scheduled nor necessary. 

And chances are they would return a Conservative minority government - the third since Prime Minister Stephen Harper first came to office in January 2006.

It's the second time that Harper has engineered an election hoping to get a majority and when the campaign started it looked like he was almost there.

However a surge by the left leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) led by Jack Layton has pushed the once powerful Liberals into third place and might have robbed Harper once again of his majority.

The other part of the political equation is the separatist Bloc Quebecois (BQ) led by Gilles Duceppe. 

The BQ sits in the national Parliament for the sole purpose of defending the interests of the French-speaking province of Quebec and breaking up the country. It has always held a firm grip in Quebec, the only province where it puts candidates, and its strength has impeded the Tories' push for a majority.

When the Parliament was dissolved on March 26, Harper had 143 seats, just 12 short of a majority. The Liberals formed the official opposition with 77 seats and the NDP had 36. The BQ had the majority of the Quebec seats in the 308-member House of Commons - 54. There were two independents and three seats were vacant.

The Liberals under former Havard professor Michael Ignatieff had lost credibility while in office and was unable to recover during the campaign. Ignatieff was never a popular leader and will likely be handing in his resignation on election night.

At the close of the campaign the public opinion polls show an interesting breakdown. A three-day rolling poll puts the Conservatives at 36.4 per cent with the NDP just behind at 31.2 per cent. The Liberals are down the ladder at 22 per cent (a NDP-Liberal majority).

For the Tories, the most optimistic polling figure shows the party at 38 per cent, still in minority territory with the NDP at 33 per cent in that same poll, which puts the Liberals at just 18 per cent. And a poll late Sunday night put the NDP within striking distance of a minority victory, with a difference of only three points between the party and the governing Tories.

What all this is suggesting is that if that translates into seats the Tories will be back in office with a minority government with the NDP becoming the official opposition for the first time.

Click here to check the polling data

The NDP surge is the wildcard that could change the trend on election day. Right leaning Liberals could get nervous and undecideds could swing to the Tories, fearing a 'socialist' takeover, and hand Harper the majority he so desperately craves.

On the other hand, since Layton is likely to be in the driving seat, he might be able to put together a coalition that would include the Liberals and leave out the separatists. If necessary he could orchestrate a BQ deal to enlist support on an issue by issue basis.

That possibility exists only because Ignatieff - who has always resisted the idea of a coalition - would be in no position to call the shots after bringing down the party to its lowest levels ever. 

And left-leaning Liberals like former Ontario NDP premier Bob Rae - who is now a Liberal jefe - might work with Layton to pull the rug from below Harper's feet.

Coalition politics is not a popular idea in Canada, but anything is possible in the race for power. 

If the best that Harper could do after five years in government is 38 per cent, then it is clear that the people of Canada want a new leadership. 

And strange as it might sound, Layton could provide it with the help of the Liberals. Together they have the support of a majority of voters, so it's logical that they should govern.

But politics is not about being logical. So watch out Canada, Steve and the boys are making an encore. And it will be business as usual, unless we Canadians get smart and send Harper back to the prairies and give Jack a chance to walk the talk.

Keep track of the election at cbc.ca