Column: Jack's political dilemma

Jack Warner is about to face his most serious political dilemma ever.

Very reliable sources are saying that his colleague Ramesh L. Lawrence Maharaj will run for the leadership of the United National Congress (UNC) and that UNC deputy leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar would also contest the top post.

That would put two former arch rivals against UNC leader Basdeo Panday, which is something that has never happened in the UNC. And while such a political scenario would present immense problems for party supporters - especially MPs and Senators - it is a much more daunting problem for Warner.

It is he and Maharaj who have been demanding change in the UNC and Warner has always said that his intention is not to leave the UNC but to reform it and prepare it to win an election.

And he has consistently rejected suggestions from some of his Ramjack supporters to discard Maharaj, whom they consider a political liability based on his history of colluding with the People's National Movement in 2000 to try to overthrow the Panday administration and later fighting the UNC, which led to the presidential coup that put Patrick Manning in office.

Now there is the real prospect that Warner might have to choose between Maharaj and Persad-Bissessar.

The Chaguanas MP is already on record as saying that she is fit to lead and that he would support her. And the third Ramjack MP, Winston "Gypsy" Peters has also made a commitment to fully support her.

The day of reckoning could come soon. Maharaj is in London and is expected to announce on his return home that he will run against Panday.

If it turns out to be a two-way fight between the two political jefes Warner would have no trouble deciding where to cast his ballot, although he could be backing a loser in Maharaj.

But if Persad-Bissessar gets in to make it a three-way race, the lines would become blurry not only for Warner but many of the people who are supporting his movement for change.

Warner's platform for change is based on the premise that in its present state the UNC cannot win an election and that leadership must be on the basis of love for the people.

The UNC Deputy Leader has always been clear that his mission is to challenge a dysfunctional leadership structure that has "drifted so far away from you the people that it has failed to realize that...the members are abandoning the Party, our Party, that you hoped would have led us into government".

In a political speech in May, he said, "For a better Trinidad and Tobago we need to get rid of the PNM. For a better Trinidad and Tobago we need to reorganize the way we do things. For a better Trinidad and Tobago, we need leaders of character."

And that brings us to the dilemma he now faces.

He has endorsed Persad-Bissessar and he has also stood shoulder to shoulder with Maharaj, calling him a man of courage, character and integrity.

How can he choose between one and the other?

If they both decide to run, he would have to choose. And his choice would have to be based on the 'winnability" of a leader.

Maharaj is dubbed the "neemakharam" of the UNC for his past deeds against Panday and the party.

Many remember the newspaper headline of him and Manning proclaiming a DONE DEAL. That's the albatross around his neck that could drown him in a contest for the leadership.

If he were to run against Panday alone his chances of victory would be very slim.

And what about the other contender?

Persad-Bissessar has always remained firm in her resolve to stand with her party, even under the most difficult circumstances. When Maharaj beat her for the post of deputy leader in 2000 she graciously accepted.

In 2007 when the UNC Alliance was demanding that she lead the party into the general election, the Panday-Warner alliance pushed her aside. She rejected the courtship from the Congress of the People (COP) and stood with her leaders and her party.

That's the strength and the advantage she has over Maharaj if it comes to another race with both of them seeking the same job.

From the membership point of view, UNC supporters would have no difficulty choosing between her and Maharaj; the problem would be if Panday remained in the race.

On the national level, Persad-Bissessar has the full support of the other opposition party, the COP, and her strong profile in her former cabinet positions as education minister and attorney general make her a popular choice for people who are not aligned to any political movement.

She also has a dedicated following among women activists who see her as a strong leader and an advocate for women's rights.

Given all these credentials and that fact that she carries no kind of political baggage, Persad-Bissessar could be the UNC leader with the ability to unite the opposition, bring a flood of new members into the party and win an election.

That's what Warner wants and she could deliver it.

But what about his loyalty to his friend?

Perhaps he can convince him to sit it out if Persad-Bissessar is going to run. But if he cannot do that, then he must make a choice between friendship and the national good.

And for now, if the contest is among Panday, Maharaj and Persad-Bissessar, it clear that the it is time for a woman to lead.

Jai Parasram - Toronto, Dec. 03, 2009