Column: Opposition political games hurting T&T

I have followed Trinidad and Tobago politics as closely as I can from Toronto, relying largely on media reports and to a lesser extent on the political connections I have maintained since leaving home many years ago.

And I get the impression that while there is obvious discontent in the Manning government, there is very little anger or desire to upset the status quo beyond much of the predictable political rhetoric.

While a perfect political storm has been building for a long time that could sweep the Manning administration out of office, the opposition seems oblivious to that reality.

And apart from random bursts of enthusiasm to demonstrate that its elected members are not comatose, there is little to give the citizen hope that change is on the horizon.

The United National Congress (UNC) headed by its founding leader Basdeo Panday, its offspring, the Congress of the People led by former UNC political leader Winston Dookeran, and the Ramjack group led by Chaguanas west MP Jack Warner are all presenting themselves as the logical alternative to the People's National Movement (PNM).

But none has demonstrated a clear agenda for change that is attracting mass excitement or presenting hope for the suffering masses.

In other words, there is nothing on the political horizon to suggest that Manning is in any imminent danger of losing his mandate. If fact, if he were to call an election soon, he might very well get the constitutional majority he so desperately craves.

It's because there are mixed signals from the COP and the UNC. On the one hand Panday is saying he is ready to talk about uniting all the groups opposed to the PNM and has even sent letters inviting Dookeran to meet.

But at the same time he has told COP it is impertinent to suggest that the UNC must merge with the UNC.

For his part, Dookeran, who initially relaunched his "unity" effort to do what he once failed at, is now connecting the political dots to draw a picture of intrigue involving Manning and Panday in an endgame destined to deal a fatal blow to COP and install Manning as an executive president without even giving the people an opportunity to have a say in the matter.

Another part of the equation is the dissident UNC group led by Warner that insists that it will stick with the UNC and reinvent it as the political vehicle to save the nation. Warner hopes to restablish himself and his change agenda in the UNC and from there, build a strong united opposition alliance to crush the PNM.

But Panday and the UNC establishment are keeping the Ramjackers out for now, while Warner is keeping the threat of legal action in his back pocket for use if necessary.

There are those who still believe that simple arithmetic would have changed the political equation and they still point to the results of 2007 to explain their theory that had COP heeded Panday's eleventh hour call for an alliance the combined effort would have put Manning out of office.

That argument doesn't stand up for one principal reason: the bulk of defectors from the UNC to COP were tired of the way the UNC was running its affairs under Panday's leadership and the new and hidden voters that COP attracted were also no fans of the UNC and Panday.

A merger of COP and UNC would have likely created a devastating blow to the opposition and probably handed Manning a stronger victory since many of the 148,000 who voted for COP would have either stayed at home or considered voting for the PNM.

Panday is going to run again to be the leader of the UNC and if those who support him behave like they have always done, the "chief" would be re-elected unopposed.

All the talk about Kamla Persad-Bissessar challenging Panday is just talk. While she would love nothing better than to lead the UNC she is smart enough to know that she cannot challenge the "chief". It's just not done. Nobody has ever done it.

So voters who want an alternative to the PNM will get Panday leading the UNC because the Ramjack team, with all its advertised muscle and professed good inentions, seems unable to topple the UNC machine.

That leaves COP, which is still led by Dookeran at least until his present term ends in 2011. As for Warner and his team, they could soon be left without a party.

Warner has always been very clear that he is not leaving the UNC, but if the party continues to frustrate his efforts to run for and get elected as a member of the national executive he would have no choice but to move on.

But where?

That's the mammoth political headache that still leaves the unity question unsetttled.

Warner has kept the door open for a union with COP but the door isn't wide open and there is talk from very reliable COP sources that some of COP's backers would be more comfortable if Warner is not a part of their "tribe".

Then there is the huge socio-economic chasm separating COP and the UNC. Some of COP's most influential backers want nothing to do with the UNC. They have made it clear that UNC tribe doesn't belong in COP.

On the Panday side there is no enthusiasm to unite with COP and lose its identity.

The UNC's founding base is dwindling, but it remains signficant enough to make a difference in the country's political fortunes. And those who continue to sustain the UNC are not going to walk over to COP.

If I were to guess I would say even if Panday and Dookeran want to do business they could very well find it nealy impossible because their respective memberships have no love for one another.

Despite all the platform rhetoric and posturing in the media, there is no real sign of any united opposition in the near future.

And that leaves Manning as secure as he ever was.

Jai Parasram | Toronto - 29 Nov. 2009