Poll suggests return of Mitchell as PM of Grenada

An opinion poll published in Grenada on Monday suggests that the main opposition New National Party (NNP) will win the February 19 general election.

The poll is by the Barbados-based Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES). It predicts that the NNP will benefit from an 11 point lead over the governing National Democratic Congress (NDC).

According to the results of the poll, which was done between January 18 and 21, more Grenadians are in favour of former prime minister and NNP leader Dr. Keith Mitchell heading a government than Prime Minister Tillman Thomas.

With respect to the preference of Grenadian voters for a leader the poll suggests that Mitchell is way ahead at 57 per cent with Thomas down at only 33 per cent. “The major political finding of the survey is that there has been a decisive swing against the governing NDC which CADRES measured at 11 per cent," the pollsters said.

“The opposition NNP is the sole beneficiary of this swing away from the NDC and this demonstrates that the two-party political conversation is still very much a reality in Grenada; it further indicates that the NDC off-shoot the National Unity Front (NUF) has not at this time stimulated the political interest of Grenadians,” CADRES said."It would appear as though Grenadians will return the NNP to office with a majority that is more generous than that which it enjoyed before the 2008 election,” it added.

CADRES said the single largest quantity of persons in the survey (48 per cent) were most concerned about the Cost of Living at this time, while a further 23 per cent identifying employment as their primary concern and just 15 per cent worried about the economy.

“Cumulatively it can be seen that 86 per cent of Grenadians are preoccupied with matters of an economic nature at this time and have presumably cast blame on the governing NDC for these problems in much the same way that governments have been held accountable regionally and internationally for the recession.

“Consistent with this view, some 49 per cent of Grenadians polled indicated that they believed that Grenada was currently on the “Wrong Track”, with 25 per cent believing the country to be on the “Right Track”, and the remainder (27 per cent) declining to answer the question,” CADRES said.

CADRES said while its survey was not intended to “speak to constituency outcomes” the data collected “at the constituency level is consistent with the national trends which at this time point to a change of government.

“The margin of victory at the national level will however depend largely on the extent to which individual candidates apply themselves over the next three weeks of this campaign,” it added.

(Source: CMC)

Editor's note:
We have not seen the methodology for the poll. CADRES was one of the polling organisations that did surveys in T&T for the 2007 general election in which it suggested that the UNC would be wiped out and that COP was 7 per cent ahead of the PNM and would likely win the election. The result was: 

People's National Movement	299,813	45.85	26
United National Congress–Alliance	194,425	29.73	15
Congress of the People	148,041	22.64	0