Commentary: Battle for San Fernando East

It appears inevitable that there will soon be a battle for San Fernando East, the constituency that Patrick Manning inherited from Gerard Montano in 1971 after Prime Minister and leader of the People’s National Movement (PNM) Dr. Eric Williams decided, following the 1970 Black Power uprising, that White men had no place anymore in the party. 

Manning’s entry into politics was effortless; 1971 was the year of the no vote campaign by the combined opposition and the man who would later become prime minister entered Parliament without a vote being cast in his name. 

Now a stroke and other health issues have hastened Manning’s departure from active politics. 

While Parliament has granted him leave for 90 days while he recuperates from the stroke that knocked him down on January 23, his party has raised the matter of whether he would be able to continue. They are already talking about a by-election and tossing around names as possible candidates.

Manning had already stated publicly that he would not seek re-election at the next general election so it is logical to expect that under the present circumstances he will either resign his seat or Parliament may have to declare it vacant. Either way, it would open a very interesting fight.

The open warfare between the current leader of the PNM, Keith Rowley, and Manning was highlighted after Manning fell ill. While Rowley and the party tried to play it down, inside sources in the PNM reported that Manning’s wife, Hazel, refused to let Rowley see her husband and slammed the door on him.

That opening act sets the stage for a battle for turf if and when Manning demits office in San Fernando East. It is clear that he remains influential and commands popular support, so the PNM would be wise to let the constituency choose the next MP. But the current leader is not winning points these days for his political wisdom.

San Fernando East is already talking about nominating Hazel, although it’s doubtful if she would want to run.

For one thing, she would want to spend time with her husband and nurse him back to good health. For another, she has always been shy of the electorate. 

She served in cabinet following the 2001, 2002 and 2007 elections without ever being elected although she could have been nominated in any of a number of safe PNM seats. Both she and her husband preferred nepotism to electoral democracy.

The question for the PNM is whether it would allow San Fernando East to make the decision or whether Rowley would insist on his nominee for the seat. Rowley would likely go for the latter in order to assert his leadership, which would then draw clear battle lines between those loyal to the former PM and supporters of the present leader. 

Such a development would erode some support within the constituency and provide an opportunity for a candidate of the People’s Partnership to make a play, and possibly win, the seat.

That is a real possibility, given the demographics and the voting pattern over the past few elections. There were 22,967 registered voters in 2010, the same number as 2007; the number in 2011 was 23106, a minimal increase.

The highest vote that Manning ever received in his constituency was in 2002 when he won with 10,772. His opponent from the United National Congress (UNC), Carol Cuffie-Dowlat recevied 5,557 votes. 

By 2010, the same opposition candidate appearing for the Congress of the People (COP) in the People’s Partnership increased her vote to 6,109 while Manning’s support was at 9,736, a loss of about one thousand votes from his best performance with some of it going to his opponent. The interesting thing about these figures is that the opposition was encroaching on Manning’s support with just over 3,000 votes separating them.

The figures mean that there are about 8,000 ‘free’ or floating votes in the constituency. That invisible vote could make the difference and change the political tide in San Fernando East, if for argument, the partnership could pick up at least 3,000 floating votes.

If Rowley decides to let the constituency have its way, it might be more difficult for the partnership candidate to win. On the other hand, if he insists on having his own candidate and the UNC or COP candidate is a strong person with no negative political baggage the PNM vote could decline, as it did in some key constituencies in 2010, and help the partnership.

Some PNM bloggers are already saying that Penny Beckles should replace Manning. That would be a horrible strategy for the PNM because of two key factors: she is from Arima and doesn’t know or understand San Fernando East, and she is the woman Manning rejected twice in the 2010 election. If she runs in Manning’s turf many Manning loyalists might stay away or register a vote for her opponent.

It’s early in the game still. Manning could make a miraculous recovery and return to Parliament, in which case it would be business as usual. However the prognosis is not good and those who have always wanted to see Manning’s back would be eager to help ease him out the door.

That means by mid-year San Fernando East could see an epic battle between PNM for supremacy and the real electoral fight to determine who will be the next representative in Parliament. 

It would be a splendid opportunity for the partnership to demonstrate that it could enter enemy territory and walk out victorious. It would be a tall order indeed. However, anything is possible in politics. Look at all that has happened in two years!

Jai Parasram | 7 February 2012