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| People's Partnership leaders at the signing of the Fyzabad Declaration - April 2010 |
What has happened was inevitable since McLeod's colleagues declared war on the government and threatened to bring down the government over their demands for a better deal for workers.
David Abdullah, who now heads the MSJ, will no doubt make an attempt to formally keep the MSJ in the partnership. He was one of the leaders of the Axe the Tax movement with the current Congress of the People (COP) Leader Prakash Ramadhar and helped bring the MSJ into the partnership.
The labour minister has given himself some flexibility since as leader of a belligerent labour body he found himself in a straight jacket having to carry out his ministerial functions and also fulfill his leadership role in the MSJ. It was obvious he could not do both, given the nature of the issues involved.
So he did the wise thing. By keeping his job in the cabinet the MSJ maintains a voice there and can help influence policy. With respect to his constituency, nothing changes.
The labour minister has given himself some flexibility since as leader of a belligerent labour body he found himself in a straight jacket having to carry out his ministerial functions and also fulfill his leadership role in the MSJ. It was obvious he could not do both, given the nature of the issues involved.
So he did the wise thing. By keeping his job in the cabinet the MSJ maintains a voice there and can help influence policy. With respect to his constituency, nothing changes.
The coalition is not a unitary party and that is what makes it workable in spite of the developments on Sunday. The five groups that signed on to work together have their individual identities and philosophies, which allow for dissent without the risk of coming apart as the NAR did following the historic 1986 general election.
The People's Partnership experiment will continue to work simply because unlike most coalitions that come together after a general election, this was a political group that worked out its agenda ahead of the election and presented a common platform for governance, which the electorate endorsed.
While the UNC received a majority of 21 seats on its own in 2010, to Kamla's credit, she kept the coalition together and gave its individual members a generous helping of the political pie.
What is important now is how the next act in this political drama plays out.
It is obvious that the key people in the MSJ want to get out of the partnership. But they cannot have their cake and eat it at the same time.
For now they are content with leaving Mc Leod where he is. However they will have to draw the line and Mc Leod would have to either stay in cabinet as an independent (or join the UNC) or leave.
Leaving would rob the MSJ or any influence it might have in governance and Abdullah would lose his comfortable Senate job. He cannot lead a movement that is bent on overthrowing the government while sitting in Parliament as a representative of the government.
The question that commentators will be tossing around in the next few days is whether the MSJ can morph into a strong Labour party and expect to have any significant impact in the next general election.
That's unlikely given the history of such movements in Trinidad & Tobago. When Basdeo Panday created a labour party, the United Labour Front (ULF), in 1976 it had an even stronger emotional following than the MSJ has today. And all the labour heavyweights were included, among them the OWTU's George Weeks.
Leaving would rob the MSJ or any influence it might have in governance and Abdullah would lose his comfortable Senate job. He cannot lead a movement that is bent on overthrowing the government while sitting in Parliament as a representative of the government.
The question that commentators will be tossing around in the next few days is whether the MSJ can morph into a strong Labour party and expect to have any significant impact in the next general election.
That's unlikely given the history of such movements in Trinidad & Tobago. When Basdeo Panday created a labour party, the United Labour Front (ULF), in 1976 it had an even stronger emotional following than the MSJ has today. And all the labour heavyweights were included, among them the OWTU's George Weeks.
However, the ULF split along ethnic lines. Panday's sugar workers and Raffique Shah's cane farmers migrated from the DLP giving the ULF the 'opposition' traditional constituencies that remain today safely in UNC hands. The rest of labour remained loyal to the PNM.
The political landscape has changed but the nature of labour has not. Businesses and many of the primary definers in society would always be wary of a Labour Party in Trinidad & Tobago because of the kind of leadership such a party would have. Without their endorsement, no party will win government.
So for now the Partnership stands and the MSJ as a political institution presents no great threat to the governing coalition, especially the UNC. McLeod occupies what is traditionally a safe UNC seat so if he really wants to stand with his labour colleagues Kamla could show him the door.
The other political question that will become part of the national conversation is whether COP will remain in the group.
So for now the Partnership stands and the MSJ as a political institution presents no great threat to the governing coalition, especially the UNC. McLeod occupies what is traditionally a safe UNC seat so if he really wants to stand with his labour colleagues Kamla could show him the door.
The other political question that will become part of the national conversation is whether COP will remain in the group.
There are two significant reasons why it will: if it leaves, it won't be able to influence policy and secondly, the UNC can govern with its 21 seats. COP has six and TOP has two of the 29 seats. And COP's leader is sitting in what is probably one of the safest UNC seats in the country.
COP's establishment outside of Parliament might want out but those inside, including the political leader and the president of the Senate, would see value in trying to effect change from inside.
COP's establishment outside of Parliament might want out but those inside, including the political leader and the president of the Senate, would see value in trying to effect change from inside.
COP's dilemma is that it wants to present itself as the conscience of the society and those clamouring for a divorce feel that the present government is already tainted. If that is so, COP must take responsibility for some of it and cannot expect to walk away unscathed.
Its difficulty in resolving this issue is whether it cab be a strong independent movement outside of the partnership. COP was born out of the UNC and many of its members were UNC, including the former and present leaders.
COP's strength in 2007 was because of the disenchantment with Basdeo Panday; Kamla's leadership changed that and weakened COP since many who had left returned home to the UNC, including the present Attorney General, Anand Ramlogan, and Transport Minister Devant Maharaj.
COP would have to rebuild without the traditional UNC constituency and that is going to be an uphill struggle. COP's boast that it caused the electoral victory in 2010 is without merit, but that discussion is for another time.
Trinidad & Tobago's experience with multi-party politics has shown that it doesn't work. The risk for COP then would be that it would face demise if it were to leave.
No matter what we think and what we say, there have been two parties that have mattered since 1956 - the Afrocentric PNM and the various incarnations of the original People's Democratic Party (PDP) that drew its support from the Indian community.
For COP (or the MSJ) to be a threat to the UNC, it would have to demolish the party the way Panday did with the DLP in 1976. That is unlikely, given the strength of the UNC today with a new popular leader in Kamla Persad-Bissessar and her strong supporting team.
No election is imminent and Kamla has three years to maintain control and strengthen her hand. Anyone who wants to stay in the game would be wise to remain on Kamla's side.
Jai Parasram - 23 January 2012
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