Sunday, July 10, 2011

Guest column: COP in the post-Dookeran era - by Dr Hamid Ghany

The election of Prakash Ramadhar by a majority of those who voted in the COP leadership election last Sunday has now placed the party firmly into the post-Dookeran era of its history. 

What appeal the party will have to the national electorate in this phase of its evolution will be a function of whether Ramadhar and his executive can broaden the membership base of the party in order to make it a major contender in the national politics of this country.

For an election process that commanded so much national attention, it was somewhat surprising that there was such a low voter turnout among COP members. 

It had been publicly stated that there were about 38,000 voters on the COP voters’ list, yet on election day only 5,181 valid votes were cast. With Ramadhar gaining about 65 per cent of those votes, there is no doubt about the popularity of his victory. 

The COP, however, may need to do its own introspection as regards the turnout as the numbers compare unfavourably against those of the UNC when their internal elections were held in January 2010. 

What is apparent is how quickly the party healed in the public eye after the election. There were endorsements for Ramadhar from all the contenders right after he was declared the winner. This is important if the party is to move forward with its development and evolution.

However, the party will have to consider whether it wants to develop itself into a single, dominant, hegemonic party that will seek to campaign for office to earn a majority in its own right to the exclusion of others, or whether it will continue to embrace the paradigm of power-sharing with other parties with whom it shares some modicum of common purpose. 

These are fundamental philosophical choices that will have to be articulated by its new leader and the new executive team. 

For the time being, power sharing is the outlook that holds the People’s Partnership together. However, there are many in the COP who have argued that they are getting the short end of the stick from the UNC in respect of the functioning of the partnership.

To a large extent, this viewpoint is one that does not wish to entertain the idea that the COP should be subjected to the dominance of the UNC as there are still those who hold to the view that the birth of the COP came out of a breakaway from the UNC. 

On the other hand, there are many organic UNC-COP supporters who identify with both parties and could swing either way because they viewed the formation of the COP as a breakaway from Basdeo Panday as the leader of the UNC as opposed to fleeing from the UNC itself. 

This latter component was clearly identified in the January 2010 internal UNC elections when many of them exercised their dual membership right to vote out Basdeo Panday as leader of the UNC and they supported Kamla Persad-Bissessar instead. 

However, the COP appears to be more than that as it also includes a number of disaffected PNM supporters who fled from the leadership of Patrick Manning as opposed to the PNM itself. These voters manifested themselves in large numbers in the 2007 general election and in even larger numbers in the 2010 general election.

With this conglomeration of ex-UNC and ex-PNM supporters, the COP represents a third major force in a political process that is designed to accommodate a two-party system. 

This leads us to a discussion about the plans of the COP for Tobago. Ever since the loss of the two Tobago seats by the PNM in the 1976 general election, there has been the evolution of a strong Tobago political presence in the national political mosaic represented by the DAC, then the NAR and now the TOP.

They were for a long time the only true third voice in the political process and their national importance grew as the PNM and the UNC became virtual head-to-head competitors for political power. 

What is interesting is that the UNC has apparently taken the position that it will not campaign against the TOP in Tobago and is seeking to solidify its alliance there so that the UNC and the TOP will become allies across the water.

On the other hand, the COP appears to be seeking to build its influence in Tobago and will therefore have to be careful that it does not send a signal to the TOP that it wants to become a growing force there that will make the TOP feel insecure about the motives of the COP. 

Party growth is one thing, political competition is another. In assessing the next move for the COP, they will obviously want to strengthen their hand so that the next time a negotiation takes place for any kind of election (national or local), they will increase their negotiating power at the table of seat allocation. 

However, they will have to make clear their intentions in Tobago for the benefit of the partnership. The PNM is watching.

The above column by DR HAMID GHANY was reproduced from the Guardian newspaper with the permission of the author.

No comments:

Jai & Sero

Jai & Sero

Our family at home in Toronto 2008

Our family at home in Toronto 2008
Amit, Heather, Fuzz, Aj, Jiv, Shiva, Rampa, Sero, Jai