The euphoria that began with Kamla Persad-Bissessar's election as Political Leader of the United National Congress (UNC) in January has not yet subsided.That is the wave that she rode to Whitehall and she and the People's Partnership are hoping to carry the success into next month's Local Government elections.
But the opponent that the coalition trounced on May 24 has changed. Patrick Manning has disappeared as leader of the People's National Movement (PNM) and Keith Rowley is now firmly in charge, hoping to present a new PNM to the people and translate that into victory on July 26.
There is clear evidence that the opposition leader is taking full control. The departure of Conrad Enill and Martin Joseph demonstrates that Rowley is purging the Manning elements and is being careful to preserve the integrity of the party.
That had been his position in the election campaign. The 'court martial' about which he spoke was swift and now that the PNM ship is in dry dock he has to move quickly to get her ready to sail - much quicker than he expected.
The PNM says it will be ready. And don't doubt it. The party is a well-established institution and Enill signalled that the impediment to its success has been removed so the party will regain what it lost - the support of thousands of supporters.
And that is why the People's Partnership should pay careful attention to what is happening both in its own backyard and in the opposition camp.
Perhaps the most critical thing for the partnership in the next few days leading up to nomination day on July 5 is to keep its house in order and ensure that its partners are happy with whatever arrangements are made for the local election.
There are loud rumblings from the Congress of the People (COP) about its "share" and some members are quite vocal about being pushed aside.
That is the challenge for both the COP leader and Kamla - to keep the coalition together and to present another united front to the electorate if it hopes to win.
I speak of the need for vigilance as well because of the nature of our first past the post electoral system.
If you look at the figures for the May 24 general election you will see a runaway victory for the coalition - 432,020 votes and 29 seats as opposed to the PNM with 12 seats and 285,354 votes, a loss of just over 14,000 over the votes in 2007.
But the reality is that the massive support for the partnership was most pronounced in traditional areas, where lopsided results gave the party the very high popular vote.
In Chaguanas West, for example, Jack Warner polled more than 18,000 votes with his PNM opponent getting just over 1,300 votes. Jack could have had just got 1,400 votes and he would have won just the same.
And that is what the partnership needs to watch carefully.
In theory, if the PNM had retained the support of the 14, 459 people who refused to vote for the party in 2010 and had kept the support in the constituencies that it lost, the PNM could have won a majority even with the coalition polling more than 400,000 votes.
And if that sounds unbelievable consider these figures, which show the number of votes that the PNM needed to win in each of nine traditional 'PNM' constituencies:
- Toco/Sangre Grande - 266
- Arima - 572
- Tobago West - 883
- Lopinot/BonAir West - 1,058
- LaHorquetta/Talparo - 1,080
- D'Abadie/O'Meara - 1,121
- San Fernando West - 1,430
- Tobago East - 2,027
- Tunapuna - 2,509
And it is the picture the People's Partnership needs to keep in focus as it enters another election campaign.
Although Rowley is just taking over the leadership, the machinery for an election had been in place for a while and the prodigals are returning home, battle ready and determined to regain some of the power it lost less than one month ago.
Winning an election takes more than a fancy message and huge crowds; it takes effective planning and organisation.
On May 24 there was a signficant swing away from the PNM. It was the classic case of the government LOSING the election, giving victory to the opposition almost by default.
Much has changed since May 24. And each party will have to work hard to win votes. That is why there is no room for complacency on either side.
And may the best candidates win!
Jai Parasram - 22 June 2010
1 comment:
COULD WE BE SEEING THE EMERGENCE OF A BLACK CALDER HART ?
I find it unusually strange that we are seeing published in the press the opinions of various Senior Counsel in relation to Conflict of Interest and a Minister of Government. Honourable men and women of the bar deserve our highest commendation for their perspicacity, as it is not often; indeed very rare, that harmony and synchronicity of eminence collides uniformly on such an important matter. The question I therefore ask is this: can a Member of Parliament who has sworn allegiance to the State of Trinidad and Tobago be expected to perform in another capacity where his allegiance can within reason be seen as compromised ?
Secondly, having regard to all the negative publicity that the government is receiving due to this matter, how can the honourable Member of Parliament be expected to act in order to prevent further negative publicity ? This is a matter for the Member around whom the negative publicity is generated in the first instance. Failing that the responsibility devolves to the Prime Minister. I disagree with Sir Ellis whose view as proferred seems to suggest that it is primarily and exclusively in the domain of the Prime Minister. Even the opinions which are being proffered as legally sound may be damaging politically. Politics is the highest law. And who ever suggested it was a legal matter ?
The government is in office on an overwhelming mandate. Why all this unnecessary amount of legal opinions ? We must congratulate honourable men and women on their pro bono work and anticipate that others of like mind will follow in their footsteps. Noblesse oblige.
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