Respected political scientist and Express columnist Dr Selwyn Ryan has endorsed the People's Partnership coalition over the People's National Movement (PNM). In his Sunday column in the Express newspaper, Ryan said that with the exception of 1976 and 1986 his column has always supported the PNM "whether implicitly or explicitly".
But he said the in 2010 Trinidad and Tobago is facing many new and daunting political and economic challenges, which is why he cannot support the PNM.
"After having thought carefully about all that has happened to us as people since the 2007 elections, and indeed before, and having also considered the issues and the options that are available to us in terms of leadership, I find that I cannot possibly support the PNM and have no alternative but to endorse the People’s Partnership coalition," Ryan wrote.
He added, "It is time for a change. We need to open up the political system and consider other governance options. We also need to lay to rest the ghost of the NAR. And the fear of coalitions with which it left us."
Ryan said there is a near total collapse of the governance system and many of the country's key institutions, including the criminal justice system and the public sector procurement system.
"Corruption, like violent crime, has become the norm of which both parties are guilty...The government seems clueless as what to do and takes refuge in bluff and arrogance. Cynicism, anomie, and executive hubris have also become pervasive.
"Above it all, trust in the bonafides of the governments has evaporated almost completely. No one trusts the government in general and the Prime Minister in particular to do the right thing; boasts to the contrary about strength and integrity notwithstanding.
"Indeed, the Prime Minister should not only confess that he has made some grave missteps and mistakes, as all humans do, but should also apologise to his party and indeed to the public generally for some, which as the seasoned campaigner he claims he is, he should not have made," he said.
Ryan, who is also a pollster, said his field work shows that the Manning factor is that which impacts most significantly and negatively on the PNM’s campaign.
Ryan said while Manning talked about democracy all of his rhetoric was informed by "the doctrine of party ’paramountcy’, a la Forbes Burnham of Guyana. The party was however an elaborate mask which concealed the assault on the judiciary and other basic institutions," he said.
One of the political crimes for which Manning must pay the ultimate price, Ryan noted, is the decision to call an election less than halfway through his government’s term.
Ryan suggested that Manning did it because of his "vaulting ambition "to be invested and sashed as Executive President".
"Did the fear that the inquiry into UDeCOTT would mean that skeletons would be crawling out of the cupboards of power, and that their secrets would be laid bare before the nation, and that he had to shore up his political bases before stuff started to hit the fan?
"The explanation is plausible, but is not convincing. We must look elsewhere for the unarticulated reasons for the quest for a fresh mandate," Ryan said.
He noted that Manning had boasted that if he won the 2007 elections as convincingly as he expected to, there was no way he could ever be removed from office.
Ryan said that was the ’Burnham Doctrine’, which states that "if you are in power, and are prepared to do whatever is necessary to remain there, including using the state as a resource, you should have no difficulty ensuring this."
Manning did not get his constitutional majority to change critical clauses of the constitution.Ryan said he likely hoped that with the opposition in disarray he could gamble with seeking a fresh mandate with the hope of getting the required number of seats.
"On the face of it, it would seem unlikely. Mr Manning’s political mind does not however always work in the way most others do. He genuinely believes that God works in mysterious ways, has a plan for him, and that if he does his part, God would do his.
"Voila! We will have to see whether God allows him to snatch victory from the jaws of certain defeat in this election"
Read the full column in the Sunday Express
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TAKE RYAN WITH A PINCH OF SALT
"The 1995 election campaign season is one of the most exciting that the country has seen in its post-war history. This one seems to have exceeded all others in that its outcome not only seems unpredictable down to the very last day but also threatens to alter, for the first time, the post Independence succession arrangements in that control of the state may well pass from one ethnic group to another." Selwyn Ryan - Friday November 3,1995 - Trinidad Express. Those are the words of Professor Ryan published a mere 4 days before the General Elections of 1995. Ryan failed to influence the outcome on that occasion.
Ryan who is seen as a clear sympathiser of Dr Keith Rowley is now presenting the view that in order for a robust PNM to emerge Keith Rowley must be at the head and in order to do that the PNM must go to the Opposition.
What does the Opposition think of such a prospect ? And what do the PNM and its supporters think of this ? What does the population think of this ? Does Ryan have any influence now more than what he did not have in 1995 ? It will not be long before we find out.
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