Column: Opposition team can easily win majority in May 24 vote

Much has changed since Trinidad and Tobago went to the polls in November 2007. But some things remain the same.

For example, there are still 41 seats in the House of Representatives and to a large extent, there has not been a significant demographic shift.

The great challenge for the political parties is to sift through the million names, find their supporters and nail down the vote for May 24 election.

It's always the most difficult part of an election campaign and the thousands of foot soldiers assigned the task of bringing in the votes are usually the unsung heroes who do not stand on the stage in front of the bright lights on election night.

May 24 will be no different, except for who might be doing the real celebrating.

In 2007 Patrick Manning and the People's National Movement (PNM) cruised to an easy majority victory with 45.85 per cent of the vote, representing ballots from 299,813 voters.

The combined opposition of the United National Congress Alliance (UNCA) and the infant Congress of the People (COP) split critical votes in key marginal seats to give the PNM the advantage.

In the end they had 342,476 votes (52.37% of the popular vote) and COP got no seat in Parliament, with the UNC candidates of the UNCA winning 15. Such is the nature of Trinidad and Tobago's first past the post electoral system.

In 2010 the COP and the UNC have joined other political groups to fight the PNM in one-on-one races in all 41 constituencies, making vote splitting a thing of the past. Of course there will likely be a few independents (including Basdeo Panday in Chagunas West) or an insignificant party or two, but they will have no more than nuisance value.

So the fight on May 24 is between the PNM and the opposition. One on one.

And if we use the 2007 numbers as a measure of what might happen, it looks like Manning might be sitting in opposition in the 10th Parliament.

Of course there is the argument that it is not simple arithmetic. Agreed. But Manning is also much weaker in 2010 that he was in 2007. And the UNC has a new leader and a new leadership, having dropped its founding leader Basdeo Panday and much of its unwelcome political baggage.

Based on figures from 2007 and assuming that the opposition has kept its support (I think it's fair to assume that it has added support) we can expect to that the opposition might win nine seats in addition to the 15 that the UNC held in the 9th Parliament.

The figures below are based on 2007 results:

Point-a-Pierre PNM - 7,427; UNC/COP – 9877 - (plus 2450)
Chaguanas East PNM - 6,757; UNC/COP – 9079 - (plus 2322)
Barataria/San Juan - PNM 7,179; UNC/COP - 9275 (plus 2096)
St. Joseph PNM -7,965 – UNC/COP - 9090 (plus 1125)
P. Town South/Tableland PNM - 8,929; – UNC/COP – 9345 - (plus 0416)

In those five seats, the opposition is starting with a majority, which equals 20 seats. In addition, seats that the UNC held previously are within reach:

San Fernando West PNM-7,371; – UNC/COP – 7257 – (114 needed)
Tunapuna PNM-8,468; UNC/COp – 7827 - (641 needed)

In Tobago East the PNM won with 5,601 with the combined opposition getting 4722, just short of victory by 879. This is a vulnerable PNM seat, which was held by DAC before.

One other strong possibility is Lopinot/Bon Air West. The PNM won it with 8,535 in 2007 but the UNC/COP combined vote was 7067, meaning a lot of hard work and the right candidate could make the difference between winning or not.

With the seat allocation announced in the unity deal it would mean that if these are the 24 seats that give the opposition a majority government, all members of the coalition would be included except NJAC, which is contesting four seats, all of them very strong PNM constituencies.

But anything is possible. A day is a long time in politics.

There is talk about the making of a political landslide similar to the one that washed the Chambers PNM out of office, dethroning the PNM for the first time in 30 years.

Since then the PNM has been in an out of office and this is the first time the party has been so pressured that it called an election two and a half years before it is due.

Jai Parasram - Toronto, 26 April 2010