Column: Political games in the PNM

When 2010 started the last thing on Patrick Manning's mind was that within four months he would be fighting for his political life.

He had already banished Keith Rowley, had planned to push Penny Beckles aside and the prospect that Basdeo Panday would be returned as leader of the United National Congress (UNC) in the party's internal election brought comfort to his heart.

What could be better for the Prime Minister? The unexpected.

Two things happened that upset Manning's political apple cart. A revolt from within started to gain momentum and Kamla Persad-Bissessar emerged as the new leader of the UNC in a decisive landslide that pushed Panday to near political oblivion.

By February 24 when Kamla formally dethroned Panday and became the leader of the opposition as well, Manning knew he had a problem.

Kamla's 10-1 victory against Panday spawned a new spirit of nationalism unlike anything the country had seen. Even high ranking PNMites like Beckles were congratulating her; the women's constituency was fully behind her and she knew that she was standing on the threshold of Whitehall.

The opportunity came much sooner than she expected when Manning, fearing a palace coup, shut down the Parliament on April 8 and set the stage for an election two and a half years after winning a strong majority.

Scandal after scandal had weakened the governing party and the inexperience of most of his cabinet - and his own blunders - made matters worse.

What added salt to Manning's political wounds was the constant war with the likes of Rowley who refused to roll over and die; instead many within the PNM rallied behind the man who gave Manning a near fatal "Hart" attack.

Today Manning is insisting that the race is just starting and there is a long distance to travel before the final tally on May 24. He is predicting that a "weak" Kamla would buckle under pressure and a hastily assembled coalition would come apart. He is counting on winning again, despite the heavy odds in favour of the opposition.

In 2007 victory was easy.
Two strong opposition parties fighting each other provided the ideal opportunity to give him seats that he would have lost in a one and one fight.

In the end he walked away with the prize although the majority of electors rejected him. The repeat performance he was counting on failed to materialize when Panday was thrown out as leader of the UNC.

Kamla kept her campaign pledge to "heal the wounds and unite" the opposition and immediately dedicated herself to sealing a unity deal with Winston Dookeran's Congress of the People (COP) and other political groups.

To his dismay Manning found that the opposition he considered weak, unprepared anf fragmented had found a way to unite and fight him one on one.

And although there is no scientific poll yet suggesting that Manning's retirement is at hand, it is clear from what is happening on the ground that Kamla's time has come.

For Manning that is bad news. Not only does he stand to lose an election that was not due for another 30 months, he risks losing his position in the party.

Keith Rowley fought for and won his nomination as a PNM candidate not to sing Manning's praises, but to guarantee his bona fide as a PNM MP when the time comes to overthrow Manning.

He had planned to launch his campaign for Diego Martin West on Thursday, but the party has now canceled the meeting, saying it is unauthorized since Rowley's nomination has not been ratified by the party.

Rowley had planned to stay within his constituency and avoid the PNM national platform. And for good reason.

After his open war with Manning and his declaration that the Manning administration was the most corrupt ever, how can he in all honestly campaign for the Manning PNM?

And on the other side of the coin after Manning's many attempts to paint Rowley as corrupt how can he present Rowley as part of a clean, honest team?

And that is where the rules of this political game change.

Rowley is not campaigning for the PNM to win this election; Rowley is campaigning for Rowley to win a seat in the next Parliament as a man of integrity who helped bring down a corrupt Manning administration.

His next move would be to demand that the party replace Manning for having caused the collapse of a majority government in 30 months and to offer himself as an alternative - Mr Clean himself. And there are enough people in high places in the PNM who would dance according to that kind of music.

Once firmly in charge, Rowley's next act would be to launch a continuous attack on the new administration, hoping to inflict mortal wounds quickly that would lead to its demise in a single term. Then the PNM and a sanitized leadership would return to Whitehall and it would be business as usual for the party that Eric Williams founded in 1956.

But maybe not.

If Kamla and her team do what they promise and run a government that is above board, develop a meritocracy in which everyone is equal and treated fairly, maintain a partnership involving the state, labour and business, get the economy fixed and tackle crime at its source the PNM would find it hard to make another breakthrough.

But the race the to 2010 finish line hasn't even started in earnest. Anything can happen in the next few weeks.

And don't be surprised if Mr Manning is back. If that happens despite the anti-Manning political tsunami spawned by Kamla's leadership, despite the mass following for this new people's opposition, then no one should complain.

Why? Because in a democracy, the people get the government they deserve.

Jai Parasram | Toronto, 26 April 2010