Column: Manning's options: prorogue or dissolve?

What is Patrick Manning really thinking?

Many of his party members are worried that he will call an election - and lose.

Former MP and Cabinet minister Fitzgerald Hinds seems certain that a general election now will put the party out of office.

Read the story: Hinds fears PNM can lose in a snap election

But the flurry of activities since Manning dropped the bombshell that he might call an election two years before it is due has convinced most people that the PNM leader will take the gamble, primarily to shut off debate in Parliament.

There are two critical issues that Manning would like to pre-empt: the debate on the opposition no confidence motion that is scheduled for Friday and the exposure of what's in the Uff report presented last week to President Richards.

The attorney general promised last week he will lay the "unsanitized" document in the Senate this week, which means that a Pandora's Box could open up, exposing all kinds of embarrassing things about Manning, his government and the dealings with former UDeCOTT boss, Calder Hart.

That would suggest that an election is a bad idea, especially since the two opposition parties - the United National Congress (UNC) and the Congress of the People (COP) have already signalled their intention not to oppose each other, meaning that the PNM will likely face a single opposition candidate in each constituency.

The other factor is that the UNC is now stronger than it has ever been following the election of a new executive led by political leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar and chairman Jack Warner.

In a general election the gloves will come off and during a campaign of three weeks - which is the shortest campaign time possible under the country's electoral rules - a lot can happen.

Manning made the mistake of calling an early vote in 1995 and ended up losing the government. So is he ready to take the risk again?

The consensus is that he is and is hoping to use every resource at his disposal to try to convince the electorate that he is still the best choice to lead the country and that despite what he calls anti-government propaganda, his administration has done a good job.

But that does not now and will not tally with public opinion. Polls show Manning has been the worst leader since independence and the latest surveys indicate that his government's approval rating is only around 20 per cent.

Then there is Keith Rowley, the latest PNM pariah who is refusing to accept that status and planning to run for the PNM if his constituency wants it. But Manning will have the final word and Rowley will probably not be on Manning's team.

One way to shut up Rowley is to let him run. It would be a coup because a candidate running for election cannot bad mouth his own party. But Manning's arrogance will prevent him from using this tool to muzzle his fiercest critic.

With Rowley outside of the PNM camp during an election campaign there could be even more chinks in Manning's armour since the former cabinet minister has slammed his own party for allowing corruption to grow under Manning.

Rowley has been largely responsible for exposing corruption in the Manning administration, particularly with respect to UDeCOTT. And he is on record as saying that any election would be fought on the issue of UDeCOTT and corruption.

So Manning finds himself wedged between the proverbial rock and a hard place. An election could put him out of office; waiting means the opposition will gain strength and the internal revolt will grow.

He can prorogue Parliament, in effect silencing the voice of the legislature, while under no obligation to call an election. He did it in 2002 when he was unable to elect a Speaker and convene Parliament after he became prime minister when President Robinson fired Basdeo Panday.

If he chooses that route he can govern with the executive arm alone without breaching the constitution. And every legislator will lose her/his voice in Parliament. Manning can then manage information carefully and indulge in a propaganda campaign to glorify himself and his administration without having to worry about MPs and Senators.

All he would have to do is recall the Parliament briefly in July to either postpone local elections again or announce a date, and then prorogue again.

So while everything points to a general election, Manning may show up in Parliament on Friday only to announce that the Parliament will be prorogued.

On the other hand he could do what most people expect and what the PNM fears - tell the House that he has advised the President to dissolve the Parliament for a general election.

Only Manning knows.

Jai Parasram - Toronto, April 4, 2010