Make April 9 on your calender.
That's the day the opposition in Trinidad and Tobago will try to document all Patrick Manning's misdeeds in a motion of no-confidence in the prime minister.
The opposition - and Manning - know the vote will not succeed, but the revelations likely to come out will be enough to make Manning's already waning popularity get worse.
But the motion is not what will make that day important. What makes the date special is what the prime minister intends to do on that day to pre-empt the opposition motion.
And all my political instincts tell me that Manning will announce that he is dissolving Parliament for a general election, most likely on May 3 or shortly thereafter.
And then he will march out to Woodford Square where thousands bussed in from across the country would embrace him in a well orchestrated rally to launch the election campaign.
It would be a brilliant stroke to steal the opposition's thunder and walk away with a winning hand in the opening round of the election game in which he hopes to hang a "Jack" and make a clean sweep.
Manning doesn't have to call an election until 2012. But the events of the past few months have signalled clearly to him that he is losing ground both inside his own party and at the national level.
His advisers are therefore telling him he could score a double victory in an election now by killing off the dissent in the party and getting re-elected, leaving an unprepared opposition right where it is - in opposition.
Manning is gambling on the opposition remaining splintered, so he could have a majority victory without winning half of the popular vote as happened in 2007.
However, if the opposition is truly focused on winning government it would put aside its differences and mount a joint campaign now in which the two parties - the Congress of the People (COP) and the United National Congress (UNC) - would not fight each other in any constituency.
In effect, the PNM under Manning would be facing one strong opposition candidate in each constituency, thereby preventing vote splitting. But there is no time to lose.
Apart from the cosmetic announcement last week that the COP and the UNC have agreed in principle to field only a single candidate per constituency, there is no real progress in moves for meaningful unity.
The UNC, energized by the rise of Kamla Persad-Bissessar, is firm in its commitment not to give too much to the COP; for its part the other party is equally adamant that it is strong and commands a significant constituency.
But those issues will become irrelevant if Manning pulls the plug and calls an election. All that would matter then is whether the combined opposition would see the big picture and make the necessary compromises to win an election.
The big picture, of course, is winning government. But achieving that goal is easier said than done. Manning has a plan and he has the resources to hire the best in the business to make it happen.
When he went to the Senate Monday to make what are obviously grand electioneering promises he was sending the clearest possible signal that he is ready to take his chances with the electorate.
What he tossed into the mix were two of the most controversial issues today: the proposed Trinidad and Tobago Revenue Authority (TTRA) and the hated property tax. Now after defending both, he is ready to back away.
And here's the reason.The Public Services Association (PSA) has always been part of the PNM's vote machine. The TTRA had put that at risk and with the association consorting with the opposition, Manning realized that it was time to halt the TTRA bill for now and bring the PSA back home to the PNM.
A photograph in the Trinidad Express showing union boss Michael Annisette hugging PSA President Watson Duke is part of the imagery for the PSA membership to get the message.
With regard to the property tax, Manning was aiming at business people and the middle class, some of whom he met last week at the hastily arranged meeting with members of the Syrian-Lebanese community.
Those insiders who say Manning didn't win many hearts when he met the group should pay attention to the signal he is sending with the rethinking of the same tax that he and his cabinet had staunchly defended while the business and middle class denounced it.
Manning also sent another signal. On the day that the president received the Uff report on the UDeCOTT inquiry, he announced that the health ministry was giving mega contracts to the agency for a major hospital development initiative. No matter who demands it, Manning is not releasing that report.
The PNM leader is gambling on getting his troops back on board and winning again without any of the "dissidents" like Keith Rowley, who has been a thorn on Manning's side for the longest while.
There is no doubt that there is a splendid opportunity for those opposed to the Manning administration to get together now and defeat the PNM.
The revolt within the PNM spilled over Monday night with anti-PNM demonstrations at a PNM rally in Valencia in northeast Trinidad. That and the grumbling from inside the party provide the opportunity that the opposition can exploit.
However, a united opposition is still not in sight and that is why Manning appears willing to take the risk.
But a day is a long time in politics and anything is possible. Manning could be stronger than ever when it is over or he might just have to take up the Bible and move into his other chosen career.
How it ends really depends on how the opposition responds to the best opportunity for victory than it has ever had.
Jai Parasram - Toronto, March 30, 2010
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