Commentary: Don't celebrate Kamla's victory yet!

There is a kind of euphoria sweeping through Trinidad and Tobago as Kamla Persad-Bissessar positions herself to take over the United National Congress (UNC) and then lead the party in a general election against the People’s National Movement (PNM).

Her supporters are hoping she’ll create a political tsunami as powerful as the one that swept the PNM out of office in 1986. The mood is so charged that if this were a general election she might have easily done it.

But it isn’t. This is an internal affair to be decided by financial members of the UNC. According to party officials there are about 34,500 eligible electors although that could increase by a few thousand by the time registration closes on Friday.

What that means is that while the public might consider the incumbent leader, Basdeo Panday, unpopular or not capable of returning the party to government the membership that will vote on January 24 might have other ideas.

Jack Warner, who is running for the chairmanship of the party, is putting his trust in the membership and hoping that the wave of support across political lines for Persad-Bissessar would influence even committed Panday supporters to embrace change and look forward.

The issue that UNC members have to consider when they mark their ballots on January 24, 2010 is the future of their party and the nation, not loyalty and emotion.

The question they have to honestly answer is this: who is best able to achieve the long-term goal: Panday, Persad-Bissessar or the other contender, Ramesh L. Maharaj?

Which of the three leaders courting them today can achieve the colossal task of healing the wounds, uniting the opposition and beating the PNM in a general election?

That is the only question they should consider because in our system of Parliamentary democracy a party with a majority can govern as it pleases without even the courtesy of pretending to pay attention to the opposition.

Panday is without doubt a powerful and influential politician who commands popular support among a dwindling base in the UNC heartland. Outside of that, however, his support has been waning ever since Maharaj conspired with Patrick Manning to paint Panday and the UNC government as a bunch of crooks.

The PNM is today one of the most unpopular administrations in the history of the country. The latest public opinion poll suggests that only 16 per cent of those surveyed believe Manning is fit to govern and 70 per cent consider the PNM government corrupt.

Manning's billion-dollar expenditure on two international summits while tens of thousands livw below the poverty line has struck a chord with the average voter; most people – 72 per cent – blame the Manning regime for squandering the nation’s windfall revenues.

With all this in its favour the opposition just has to get its act together and wait for Manning to call an election.

But getting there is easier said that done as we have seen with the UNC in the past. Now that Warner is backing Persad-Bissessar the tide has turned and there is a chance that Panday could be swept under.

The task at hand is to find a forumla to convince UNC members that they hold the future in their hands. They must choose between living in opposition or having the best chance ever of returning to government.

Panday is counting on another political resurrection like the one that came in 2007 when everybody – including the pollsters – were already writing his and the UNC’s epitaph and crowning the new kids on the block, the Congress of the People (COP).

But a few pieces are missing from the political jigsaw. Warner was part of that political resurrection as were Maharaj and Persad-Bissessar. And there is the critical issue of funding a general election campaign, not to mention the splintered opposition.

But perhaps more important than all of that is the perception that Panday is well past his prime and cannot win another election, which is what prompted Persad-Bissessar to choose between loyalty to Panday and a duty to the party and the country.

The political arithmetic is very clear in the first-past-the-post system. Manning and the PNM won the last election with a strong majority of 26 seats in the 41 chamber House of Representatives with 45.85 per cent of the popular vote.

What the opposition needs as a first priority, therefore, is to find a formula to unite, but it must be a genuine marriage not the kind of shotgun arrangements that came apart as soon as the votes were counted in 1986.

That requires a UNC leader who is willing to compromise, who can earn the respect of all opposition groups and command support across party lines. Persad-Bissessar could be that leader.

First and foremost, her gender brings strong support from that constituency as is evidenced from the endorsements from strong national figures like Hazel Brown, Diane Seukeran, Diana Mahabir-Wyatt and Dana Seetahal.

She carries no baggage like Maharaj, who is marked as the man who brought down the Panday government and is reviled among UNC supporters for making deals with Manning. And she has a pretty decent track record in public office.

Panday’s handicap is his hostility to the idea of change within the UNC that has alienated many of his most loyal supporters and friends, including Warner. And while he talks of unity he also shows contempt for those who do not subscribe to his views.

The challenge for Persad-Bissessar is to get a majority of eligible UNC voters to understand that settling the leadership issue is only the first step in a very long journey to government.

It is very easy to be seduced by opinion polls and non-voters who attend political meetings.

The nightly random People Meter poll on TV in Trinidad Wednesday night showed 95 per cent support for the decision that Warner made to back Persad-Bissessar.

That could be cause for dancing on the streets. But hold the celebration!

How many among those who voted in that poll can vote on January 24? That is the critical question.

The signs are pointing in the right direction, but there is work to be done. And unless the Persad-Bissessar campaign gets on the road one-on-one and spreads her message strongly enough to convince the voters that now is the time for change, Panday could very well be back and get his wish to "die with my boots on."

Jai Parasram - Toronto, Dec. 17, 2009