Commentary: Manning and Panday meeting because they need other

Basdeo Panday's meeting with Patrick Manning Tuesday has raised eyebrows across the political spectrum and some commentators are wondering why the two are meeting now.

There are good reasons. Both men are facing revolt from top members of their own parties and both of them have been talking publicly about constitutional reform, which ostensibly is the subject of Tuesday's consultation between the prime minister and the leader of the opposition.

On first glance there is nothing unusual about it. The constitution allows for regular consultations between the holders of the two offices and Panday and Manning have met before to discuss law and order, following which the opposition supported anti-crime legislation.

Would Tuesday's meeting bring a similar deal, this time on the constitution? That's hardly likely, given their respective positions on the issue. If each holds firm on his positions on constitutional reform there is bound to be deadlock.

For instance, Panday wants a unicameral Parliament, proportional representation (PR) and an executive president elected by the people in a one-person-one-vote system. Panday also wants a guarantee that the Judiciary would remain independent of political influence and he rejects the Caribbean court of Appeal as the country's final court.

Manning refuses to even think of PR, insists on a Justice Ministry which critics say would compromise judicial independence and he wants an executive president elected on a system similar to the U.S. electoral college model.

There is little room for compromise, but then again it depends on how badly they need each other. And that could change the situation dramatically.

The worst kept secret is that Manning is facing a revolt in his party which has been building since he kicked out Keith Rowley from cabinet. That dissident movement is growing bolder daily and Manning is worried that a palace coup is in the making.

The only way to smash it is to go back to the people for a fresh mandate, leaving out all those who are fighting him. But can he risk that?

In the opposition camp, Panday is facing his own revolt from the Ramjack team which is gaining strength and seems to be moving toward an alliance with COP, the Congress of the People.

Both Manning and Panday seem to be rapidly losing political friends, so perhaps the best deal is for them to become best friends, which is what COP leader Winston Dookeran has been saying.

But what can they offer each other? Plenty.

Manning can cut a deal to help out the Hindu Credit Union (HCU) with the hope that tens of thousands of HCU depositors, who are in the heartland of Panday's United National Congress (UNC), might be grateful and embrace Panday.

Panday can return the favour by supporting a modified constitution with an executive president. The dilemma however is that some of his faithful MPs are dead set against Manning's constitution and there's the risk that he could lose their support. Most notable among them is deputy leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar who is being touted as Panday's successor.

If both men can make a deal, Manning could gamble with a snap election and hope to win enough seats to get close to the magic number of 32 MPs and Panday could deliver the other votes to make the constitution pass.

The catch is this: Would Manning go to an election under current conditions? If he does, would the Rowley team fight him and not an election? Can Panday find the funds to mount a campaign and can he convince voters that he's their best hope?

No matter how you look at it, both men are on the ropes and they need each other badly. The problem they both face is what formula they can find to survive and fight another day.

And that is the only reason why they are meeting.

How I wish I could be a fly on the wall!

Jai Parasram

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