Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Column: Who will lead UNC?

The United National Congress (UNC) is planning its much anticipated internal election for January 24 next year, having changed its rigid stand on holding the vote after the Local Government Election.

It was that single issue that precipitated the fallout with some key party members including Deputy Leader, Jack Warner, who went on to form a Movement for Change within the party with a view to preparing it to beat the People's National Movement (PNM) in a general election.

But with two factions in the UNC party members would have to think carefully about their choices when it comes to casting a ballot for the leader and other party officials.

Today, it's not even clear whether the RAMJACK members, who are facing disciplinary charges, will be able to participate in the election or whether UNC founder Basdeo Panday will run for the leadership.

Panday, who was elected UNC Chairman in the last internal election, also holds the post of Political leader, which was handed to him by the executive after Winston Dookeran abdicated and formed the Congress of the People (COP).

Panday has said repeatedly that he will respond to the wishes of the UNC members. If they want him to lead, he says, he will run again against anyone who wishes to challenge him for the post.

But the real issue that UNC members will have to face is whether the leader they choose will be able to topple the PNM in a general election? Sadly, Panday might not be that person.

There are many who might run if the "chief" is not in the race. However, the culture within the UNC is that no one challenges Panday for control of the party and the executive.

The records are clear on that. When Ramesh Maharaj and his Team Unity won control of the executive ahead of the 2001 general election Panday was able to woo back members of the executive and take control. But winning on that score didn't return him to government.

Then as it is now, there were two UNC factions. And the result was disastrous. Will 2010 be different or a repeat of history?

So the starting point in this race is not who will run but whether there can be a reconciliation BEFORE the starting gun is fired.

Warner believes reconciliation is the most sensible thing because common sense shows that a divided opposition is a gift to the PNM. Just look at the history of Trinidad and Tobago's politics, especially the 2007 general election when the PNM won a strong majority with fewer votes that the combined opposition.

Panday is a coalition builder. He got into Whitehall in 1995 with a formal coalition with his political foe, A.N.R. Robinson. He is a pragmatist who believes that politics has a culture of its own and he is on record as saying that he would "sleep with the devil" if necessary.

The fact that he has survived in politics for more than four decades - including six years as prime minister - is testimony to his political brinkmanship.


So what really would be Panday's move? He must know that a fractured party is not a winning option. Yet he is holding fast to his position on the "dissidents" and insists that there is nothing to reconcile.

His position is that Warner et all have broken the party rules and that they and others who violate those rules must face the consequences. In that context he believes that people like Jack Warner and Ramesh Maharaj cannot continue to be members of the party unless they accept the UNC's disciplinary process.

But the RAMJACK group doesn't buy the legality of the disciplinary action against them, which could lead to their expulsion.

Warner is not worried about the charges against him because as far as he and his legal team are concerned, they are without merit.

That would suggest that Maharaj could be considering the biggest gamble of his political career - challenging Panday for the leadership of the party. The Tabaquite MP has not said if he will do so, only that he might consider it. His past deeds as leader of Team Unity is a blemish that would make his bid extremely difficult if not impossible.

What of the others? There is a strong lobby for Deputy Leader and Siparia MP Kamla Persad-Bissessar to run for the leader's job. And there are others who might think their time has come - people like Roodal Moonilal, who is bright and smart enough to keep his lips sealed on the fighting in the party. Deputy Chairman and St Augustine MP Vasant Bharath and Caroni East MP Tim Gopeesingh are all possible contenders.

But nobody is going to make the move if Panday is running.

And that's why the party needs to call a truce among its leaders and become one party again. That is, if it is serious about returning to Whitehall. If it can't do that, the whole internal election issue would be a charade that won't get the party any closer to removing the PNM.

Why?

Because there is a substantial following for the RAMJACK movement and because the other strong political party - the COP - wants nothing to do with a UNC under Panday's leadership.

The leadership of the UNC, therefore, is perhaps the most critical issue facing the masses who are opposed to the PNM and the Manning administration.

It is clear that Manning has given citizens more than enough reasons for a change in government, but he remains strong because of the lack of a united opposition.

Today with three competing political forces that have the potential to become a single, powerful entity that can topple the PNM in a free and fair election, there is a splendid window of opportunity for change.

A united opposition is indeed a strong possibility if the UNC can behave in a mature and professional manner that would demonstrate to all that it can be an alternative government.

Panday still commands strong support among loyalists in the UNC heartland and has the backing of 11 of the elected opposition members. But there are strong divisions in the general membership about whether Panday should continue to lead.


Warner, who leads the Movement for Change, remains a member and Deputy Leader of the UNC and despite his sometimes open verbal clashes with Panday, remains respectful of his leader and recognizes his contribution to the nation.


No matter what happens in a UNC leadership vote, if it leaves a fragmented opposition it would give Manning a return ticket to Whitehall whenever he chooses to call an election, which could be much earlier that 2012.

That's why without reconciliation an internal election is an exercise in futility. Any reconciliation must concede that Panday cannot disappear from the political scene.


At the same time Panday must accept that while his leaderhship might guarantee a few heartland seats such a situation would do nothing to help the very dispossessed constituents he has represented for four decades.

Panday must now behave like the statesman he can be and step aside as leader and let the party nominate and elect the best man or woman to represent the UNC. Armed with such a mandate the new UNC leader can then work to unite the opposition and challenge Manning and his PNM and win.


It means a break from business as usual. Warner's business acumen would make him the ideal UNC Chairman. People like Panday, Maharaj and Dookeran will continue to have powerful roles to play.

But it is an insult to the nation to suggest that there is no one competent, smart enough and willing to serve as a national leader who could challenege Manning and the PNM and become the country's next Prime Minister.

That person is waiting to emerge if the conditions are right; the people are ready to send Patrick Manning into retirement.

All that is required is the political will. It is time to look forward not for political expediency, but for the future of Trinidad and Tobago. Now is the time for action; tomorrow is too late.

Jai Parasram Toronto

No comments:

Jai & Sero

Jai & Sero

Our family at home in Toronto 2008

Our family at home in Toronto 2008
Amit, Heather, Fuzz, Aj, Jiv, Shiva, Rampa, Sero, Jai