Poll suggests PNM could win again, but strong opposition could change that

A new public opinion poll suggests that if a general election were held in Trinidad and Tobago today the governing People's National Movement (PNM) would be easily re-elected despite widespread dissatisfaction with the Manning government.

But it's not all that cut and dried. The NACTA poll results are based on the present party structures.

NACTA asked 820 respondents how they would vote. This is how it broke down:

• PNM - 33 per cent
• UNC - 13 per cent
• COP - 12 per cent
• "RamJack" - 10 per cent
• Undecided - 32 per cent

Those findings are close to the result of the 2007 general election when there were two opposition parties fighting the PNM - The UNC Alliance led jointly by Panday and Jack Warner and Winston Dookeran's Congress of the People (COP).

In 2007, the combined opposition vote was higher than the PNM's but because of the first past the post electoral system the PNM easily won 26 seats with 46 per cent of the popular vote. The UNC-A won 15 seats with 30 per cent of the vote and COP received 23 per cent.

NACTA's findings today suggest that the two factions of the UNC would have 23 per cent of the vote and when the full opposition figures are added together a united opposition would have 35 per cent - that's two points ahead of the PNM.

But the most critical factor is the 32 per cent who are undecided. Since there is widespread dissatisfaction with the Manning government, a substantial portion of that vote could be transferred to a united and strong opposition.

That would mean that the PNM could lose an election in the foreseeable future if the opposition groups end their bickering and find a formula to unite under a single banner with a credible leader.

While these figures will keep changing, if there is a single opposition that appears to be stable and organized enough to be an alternative government, the PNM could lose two or three points and the combined opposition would have a majority if it takes even half of the undecided.

But there's another interesting signal in the poll results. Historically, the PNM has always had a core support of about 28 per cent of the electorate and that has not changed significantly even with the chaos in the opposition ranks and the changing national demographics.

One of the NACTA findings is that a majority of people are suggesting that they would vote an opposition party if the parties organize themselves and elect "a younger, more dynamic leadership" that can seriously challenge Manning and the PNM.

One interesting statistic from the poll is how the leaders rank in the opinion of electors. Manning is at the top with 39 per cent, Panday has 18 per cent support and Dookeran is at 16 per cent.

And it suggests that the low marks for Panday and Dookeran indicate that are neither is willing to step aside for the national good. NACTA said voters see both of them as representing the status quo and want them to step aside.