Michael Ignatieff is ready to take on the Tories on EI reform

Liberals converged on Vancouver, B.C. over the weekend to formally elect Michael Ignatieff as their new leader. But it was more of a coronation, since the party had already proclaimed him leader following their 'near-death' experience under former leader Stephane Dion and there was no none to oppose him.

Ignatieff began his job Sunday with this message to party members and supporters: "We’re leaving Vancouver as a strong, united Party, with a renewed sense of purpose. We’re ready for the challenge ahead, and we’re ready to win the next election. With your help, we will do better."

With the convention out of the way, Canadians are now watching to see whether Ignatieff will try to convert his popularity into an electoral victory for his party.

But Ignatieff is not giving anything away. Speaking in Vancouver Sunday he would only say that he wants his people to have an election platform ready by June for "any eventuality". He was quick to note that no one should take that to mean he's planning to topple Stephen Harper's minority Conservative government before the summer.

"Don't derive electoral timetables from that...I'm not playing games with you," he assured reporters.

He is following the old boys scouts' rule: be prepared. Some prominent Liberals are telling their leader now is the time for an election, which the Liberals can win. Perhaps they can. But Ignatieff is not getting hasty. And for good reason.

His Liberals alone cannot topple the minority Conservative government because of the numbers in the House of Commons. The Tories, under Prime Minister Stephen Harper, won 143 seats in the Oct. 2008 general election, just short of the 155 needed for a majority in the 308-seat Commons.

A coalition hastily cobbled together last December is dead and both the New Democrats (NDP) and the separatist Bloc Quebecois (BQ) have enough seats to keep the Conservatives in charge.

Harper's strategy would likely be to make one or both of them happy enough to win their support and prevent the Liberals from pulling the plug on his government.

So for now Ignatieff is saying he still wants to make Parliament work, if that's possible. He told reporters the message he has got from Canadians during his cross-country travel is that they are election-weary and don't want an election now.

It's also not the best time to get into government, given the downturn in the economy caused by the global financial crisis.

Political pundits are saying if there is going to be an election this year the single issue that could trigger it is Employment Insurance (EI) reform.

Tens of thousand of Canadians have lost their jobs since the height of the global crisis last fall and people everywhere are hurting. Families are unable to meet basic expenses and their lifeline is the small stipends they get from unemployment insurance.

Ignatieff has promised a Liberal proposal to move to a national standard to qualify for EI instead of the the dozens of different regional rates that currently exist. It would be a temporary measure to see jobless Canadians through the economic crisis, offering immediate relief from the recession.

He wants an immediate change that would make people eligible for EI benefits if they've worked 360 hours in the previous 52 weeks — regardless of where they live.

"There are issues on which I'm not going to budge or bend. We've got eight per cent unemployment. We've got surging insurance claims across the country," he said.

Still, Ignatieff is not seeking confrontation on the issue. He told reporters he is still willing to do business with Harper if the government has the national interest in mind. "If not, then we'll be in another situation," he warned.

"This is a visionless and directionless government, more preoccupied with its own survival than giving Canadians a vision for the future. I've got a vision that'll take us to 2017," he added.

If EI becomes the issue on which to challenge the Tories it would be difficult for either the NDP or the BQ to ignore it and look the other way without doing irreparable damage to their credibility. It could very well be the trump card that Ignatieff will use if he believes that the time is right to pull down the Tories and seek a mandate to govern.

But there is a catch. While both parties have been advocating better protection for workers neither wants to trade a minority Conservative government for a Liberal majority. They are seeing growing strength for the Liberals under Ignatieff's leadership at their expense.

The Bloc's stranglehold on Quebec is mainly responsible for the recurring minority Parliaments but the party's support is slipping. Now for the first time a public opinion poll in April put the Liberals ahead of the separatist party.

At the national level a recent Ekos/CBC survey found that 36.7 per cent of those surveyed would vote for the Liberals under Ignatieff as opposed to 30.2 per cent for the Conservatives and 15.5 per cent for the New Democrats.

That's a major shift from January when the Conservatives with 36.2 per cent support were four points ahead of the Liberals.

So Ignatieff is playing his cards carefully because he appears - for now at least - to have a winning hand. He wants to be prepared - just in case. And instead of making threats he's offering to work with everyone to get things done for the people who are in desperate need.

That's giving him bonus points with the electorate while Harper's Tories continue to be burdened by the economic crisis, which is not going away any time soon.

The Liberals are sensing power again and have rallied around their new leader. Ignatieff's greatest task is to take firm control and rebuild the Liberal brand while holding the Tories accountable. So far that strategy is paying good dividends and Ignatieff is not about to squander it with an election nobody wants.

Watch Ignatieff's speech from the Vancouver convention