The internal bickering in the opposition United National Congress (UNC) presents an opportunity for political change in Trinidad and Tobago. The question is who will seize it - Prime Minister Patrick Manning or the leadership of a progressive opposition movement.Manning could pull the plug on the ninth Parliament in order to win the special majority he has been craving through fresh elections. On the other hand the UNC and COP could find a formula to create a truly national party that would be a viable and credible alternative to Manning and his governing People's National Movement (PNM).
Fortunately for the UNC, despite warnings about a snap election, there is no such signal coming from the PNM. That gives the opposition a final opportunity to seriously consider its strategy if it ever hopes to remove the current administration.
Ramesh L. Maharaj, the former UNC attorney general and current MP for Tabaquite, outlined such a strategy at Sunday's retreat. But instead of the caucus and national executive taking Maharaj's proposals seriously they opted instead to move to discipline him and his parliamentary colleagues, Chaguanas West MP Jack Warner and Winston "Gypsy" Peters for demanding change and "bringing the party into disrepute".
Read about the Maharaj strategy
Maharaj has warned that in an early election, the UNC as it is currently constituted has no chance of winning. The statistics help tell the story.
In the Nov. 5, 2007 general election the party lost 100,000 votes to the infant Congress of the People (COP), which comprised mainly disenchanted UNC supporters and members who walked away with party leader Winston Dookeran after Dookeran gave up the leadership of the UNC. COP didn't win a seat, but it won 148,000 votes.
Since then the UNC has continued to lose support and the polarization that's taking place today is chasing away loyal and dedicated supporters and discouraging those who are seeking an alternative to the PNM.
It is clear that in such an environment Manning could opt for an early election and if he does he might win the constitutional majority he craves.
And Maharaj has warned that if that happens Manning would "institutionalise dictatorial rule in our Country and would give control to Mr. Manning of the Public Service, the Police Service, the Armed Forces, the power of prosecution and the Judiciary."
Nobody in the UNC executive is heeding the warning. Instead Maharaj and Warner are the latest party pariahs, neemakharams, who are about to be cast out of the UNC for demanding change, democracy and accountability.
The tragedy is that Manning has created the perfect political storm that can sweep him out of office, yet the opposition is dithering while the nation is looking for leadership.
Warner is promising a "new UNC" based on people power but the million-dollar question is this: how will that happen?
Warner has said he has no intention of running in another election with a divided opposition. That would suggest he has a clear vision of a united opposition ready to face the PNM in a two-way electoral battle.
That means uniting the UNC, its allies that formed the UNC Alliance and the COP. If Warner can bring in the disenchanted PNM supporters and members, a truly national party is possible.
That's a tall order and requires a mammoth effort in mobilization, education and political communication. But it's feasible, given the present state of affairs of the nation.
Even the greatest optimist cannot see a speedy reconciliation in the UNC and I would suggest that none is coming later either.
It means that if Warner hopes to achieve what he has promised he must move swiftly and ride this tide or be swept beneath it. Fighting to hold on to the UNC is only delaying the inevitable and eroding Warner's credibility.
The people are ready; all they lack is the leadership. Now is the time for everyone who cares about the future of Trinidad and Tobago and its people to demand an end to the political games.
And those who have made the commitment to serve must either lead, follow or get out of the way.
Jai Parasram | Toronto, April 27, 2009
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