Opposition leaders Jack Layton, NDP (left), Liberal Stephane Dion (centre) and the Bloc Quebecois' Gilles Duceppe (right). A Canadian flag is partially visible behind Layton"We have these three parties signing a document, and they wouldn't even have the Canadian flag behind them!" - Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, speaking in the House of Commons during Question period on Dec. 02, 2008.
Harper was berating the leaders of three opposition parties that have formed a coalition that is trying to topple his government and take over the reins of power.
The NDP-Liberal coalition has the support of the separatist Bloc Quebecois, which has vowed to take the French-speaking province of Canada out of the Canadian federation. During a heated session Harper insisted that he would not hand over the "keys of power" to a "separatist coalition".
And he said if the Liberals want to govern they should go back to the people. There was something wrong with Harper's nationalistic rhetoric. His statement was a lie. There were at least two huge Canadian flags on the podium where the three leaders signed their coalition agreement on Monday, Dec. 01, 2008.
The Story:
Canadian Governor General Michaelle Jean is aborting a state visit to Prague to return home on Wednesday Dec. 3 to deal with an unprecedented political crisis that could see the Conservative minority government toppled and the installation of a coalition involving the left-leaning New Democrats and the Liberal Party, supported by the separatist Bloc Quebecois.
It could also see fresh elections just weeks after Canadians returned a Conservative minority to office on October 14 in an election that few people wanted.
The political soap opera began less than a week ago when the Conservative Party presented an economic package to deal with the global financial crisis. The fiscal document triggered angry reaction in part because it was seen as a display of the arrogance of Prime Minister Stephen Harper who appeared determined to ignore the opposition and carry on with his own agenda on how to deal with the state of the Canadian economy.
Its contents were offensive.
Harper cut off funding for political parties to save money - $1.95 for each vote cast. It was like waving a red flag before a raging bull. And each opposition party immediately denounced the move.
The other attack was directed at workers and the New Democrats, whose base in the working class. Harper placed a temporary ban on their right to strike. And in another unkind cut, his fiscal update failed to convince the opposition that he was ready to deal with the urgency of the financial crisis.
The opposition, which had just supported the Conservative Throne Speech, was unhappy with Harper's disdain for them and reacted swiftly. They immediately enlisted political heavyweights former Liberal Prime Minister Jean Chretien and respected former NDP Leader Ed Broadbent to work on a political agreement designed to create a coalition of the two national opposition parties with support from the separatist Bloc Quebecois.
Harper, who had insisted that he would not change anything in his package and said it would be a confidence vote in the House of Commons, buckled under the sudden show of strength on the opposition side.
By the weekend his people were backtracking. First the Tories rescinded its decision on funding for political parties, followed quickly by an about turn on the ban on strikes. Finally the finance minister said he would present a budget on Jan. 27, at least a month earlier than originally planned. Still the party insisted that it was not responding to opposition pressure but merely reacting to the reality on the ground.
If it was meant to weaken the opposition coalition it worked in the reverse; the parties grew bolder and said the turnaround demonstrated that the Tories were not to be trusted.
Then on Monday afternoon the three leaders – Jack Layton of the NDP, Liberal Stephane Dion and the Bloc Quebecois' Gilles Duceppe announced to the national media that they had concluded a deal to unseat the Harper government.
They said they had advised the governor general that Harper had lost the confidence of the House and that the coalition, which now has the support of the majority, should be given a chance to form a government headed by the Liberal leader, Stephane Dion.
Earlier in the day the Liberal caucus had unanimously backed Dion to lead although Dion made it clear that he would hold the post for a short time and hand over power to his successor after the Liberals choose a new leader next May.
But nothing is clear as the political storm clouds gather on Parliament hill.
Harper is determined to protect his turf and stay in power. He is presiding over his second minority government since 2006 and is just short of a majority by 12 seats. That has emboldened him and he might have misread the mood of the politicians and the country when he ignored the opposition parties and went ahead with a package that was ostensibly designed to taunt the opposition.
One political commentator, Rex Murphy of the CBC, described Harper's move as both arrogant and stupid and said his economic package was like "tossing a live grenade in the underpants of the opposition leaders."
In fighting back, Harper is playing the nationalistic card saying it is unthinkable that the Liberals and NDP are working with a party that is determined to break up the country. But the opposition was quick to remind Harper that he too was willing to do a deal with the separatists in 2004 to oust the Liberal party led by Paul Martin.
The Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe was quick to remind reporters that Harper walked into his office and told him he wanted to overthrow the Martin government. The result was a letter dated September 9, 2004 to the then Governor General Adrienne Clarkson signed by Harper, Duceppe and Layton saying pretty much the same thing the current coalition is telling the governor general.
A confidence vote is scheduled for Dec. 8, next Monday, but there is a chance that Harper could stop the vote by asking the governor general to prorogue Parliament. To do this he must convince the head of state that there are extraordinary circumstances, especially since the current Parliament is just a few weeks old.
The strategy would be to hold off a vote and freeze Parliament for a while. But commentators and political opponents have said if Harper does that he would in effect be hiding from Parliament, a situation that would tarnish his image and hurt him in the long term.
On the other hand he can let the no-confidence vote go ahead and if he loses, as he most likely would, he could ask the governor general to dissolve the Parliament and hold fresh elections. He was hinting at that Monday when he told the Liberal leader is he wants to the prime minister he must get that mandate from the people.
But Canadians voted on Oct. 14 and are not excited about doing it again, especially since an election would cost $300 million.
If Harper asks for fresh elections there is no certainty that the head of state would agree. She has the constitutional option of asking the opposition parties to form a government, which is what the NDP-Liberal coalition is counting on.
Constitutional experts are divided on what happens next. And with the parties pushing their propaganda machinery to full throttle anything is possible in the next few days.
Harper could shut down Parliament as early as Wednesday and hide for a while but he would have to eventually face the no-confidence vote. So will Harper fall or not? Stay tuned!
Some third party opinion:
Editorial – Globe and Mail:
"First Stephen Harper united the right; now he has succeeded in uniting the left. However much he backtracks from his horrendous miscalculations of last week's hyper-partisan economic update, the damage has been done."
(December 2, 2008)
Ned Franks – Professor emeritus at Queen’s University:
"If he prorogues, he's running away, (...) Harper can run, but he cannot hide."
(Times & Transcript, December 2, 2008)
Janice MacKinnon – Professor of public policy at the University of Saskatchewan and a former NDP finance minister:
"The Conservatives' economic update completely missed the mark - it was a narrow, partisan document that failed to give Canadians the true fiscal facts and a long-term game plan to address the economic crisis."
(Globe and Mail, December 2, 2008)
Jim Stanford – Economist, Canadian Auto Workers Union:
"Mr. Flaherty won't let mere global recession interfere with the tried and true principles of laissez-faire. Therefore, contrary to both the trend in other countries and the clear signals that his government had been sending since the election, Mr. Flaherty's update provided not stimulus, but anti-stimulus. The actions announced in the update (limiting equalization payments to have-not provinces, reducing wage increases and pay equity payouts to civil servants, and other vague spending cuts based on "better management") will together reduce federal spending by several billion dollars per year. (+) And the politically charged nature of the ill-fated attacks on opposition parties and public-sector unions confirmed that it is the Conservatives who put politics ahead of the economy. "
(Globe and Mail, December 2, 2008)
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