Who gets the last laugh?

A pamphlet circulating in Trinidad and Tobago is calling for a Parliamentary coup to topple the Manning administration. On the surface, it looks like idle propaganda and an exercise in futility. And it might very well be just that!

Prime Minister Patrick Manning is more secure than he has ever been with the majority of his parliamentary caucus being new and loyal. He made sure he did a political purge ahead of the last general election and with Keith Rowley now gone he is even more comfortable.

The other propaganda making the rounds is the so-called dissent among People National Movement (PNM) faithful and the call led by former senior Cabinet minister Ken Valley for Rowley to go after Manning and seize the leadership of the party. Rowley is smart enough to know that is worse than living in the Dog House.

But Manning has that UDeCOTT Albatross around his neck and he is already putting enough spin into the story to justify all that the UDeCOTT and its boss, Calder Hart, are doing.

The machinery is well oiled and ready for the long haul. And his latest move to set up a whitewash probe using a parliamentary committee isn’t solving his problem. If there is anything that Manning should be worried about today it is UDeCOTT, which could be his Waterloo. For the first time in a long time, the nation is united in a common cause. If there is the will, Manning could be crushed by the weight of the UDeCOTT monster.

But let’s have a look at this uprising against Manning. The old adage of where there is smoke there is fire comes to mind.

Forget the leadership issue. That’s not going to fly because of the way the way the PNM constitution is structured. Party groups choose delegates; delegates choose the leader and not a damn dog bark. There’s nothing wrong with it. Those are the rules you follow if you want to play the game. Rowley played before and lost. He’s not going to do it again.

But this mysterious pamphlet raises questions. It’s clear who’s behind it. But can it work?

Remember Manning’s attempted parliamentary coup in 2001 with help from three members of the governing United National Congress (UNC) administration that had just won a slim one-seat majority?Prime Minister Basdeo Panday pulled the rug from under Manning’s feet and called an election.

However, the 18-18 result worked in Manning’s favour because Panday’s trusted advisers convinced him that President Robinson would act according to the letter of the constitution and re-appoint him. They were wrong. Robinson did what he said was right. He went for "morality and spirituality." And that brings us back to where we are today.

Rowley can only pull this off only if he acts with precision, uses the best negotiation skills and hastily puts together a coalition that includes the entire caucus of the United National Congress Alliance (UNC-A).

That would still put him four short for a parliamentary coup or a successful confidence vote against the administration. But we know that's not going to happen.

So let’s indulge in some fiction for a moment.

Suppose the “unthinkable” happens and Basdeo Panday et al fall for the deal and Rowley can convince Penny Beckles, Colm Imbert and two others to join him. If that happens he can make his play. But then the president could be the fly in the ointment.

There are two scenarios. A majority of MPs could advise the president that they now support Rowley and ask him to fire Manning and give the job to Rowley. That’s what Manning was about to do in 2001 when Panday asked Robinson to dissolve Parliament.

Or they could force a confidence vote, which Manning would lose if Rowley has the support of 20 other elected members of the House of Representatives. In such a case Manning has the option of resigning or asking the president to dissolve the Parliament and hold fresh elections.

I would wager that if Manning finds himself in such a situation he would call a snap election and win an even more convincing majority.

Why?

Because he commands all the apparatus of the state and those who oppose him cannot put together a convincing campaign overnight to appeal to an apathetic electorate to change the status quo.

It is easy enough for Rowley and those who are driving him to salvage his political life to take basket and feel that once he makes the right moves the people would be with him. But where would his credibility be if he and Basdeo Panday are on the same platform? And Panday and the rest of the UNC-A would have the same problem.

Trinidad and Tobago is a fickle nation. Those who care about where the country is headed or willing to take a stand are in an absolute minority. So in spite of all the sound and fury of this latest “plan”, Manning will stand firm and remain where he is. There is going to be no Parliamentary coup, no confidence motion and no election.

The political lesson in all this is that Manning gets what Manning wants. He will get past UDeCOTT too, bruised but secure. And he might still get his private jet.

And in case you are too young to remember Manning’s first political boss, Dr Eric Williams, here’s something to think about, “If you don’t like it, get to hell outa here.”

Jai Parasram Toronto, May 19, 2008